Page 285 - Materials Chemistry, Second Edition

Chapter 11
Uncertainty Management and Sensitivity
Analysis

Ralph K. Rosenbaum, Stylianos Georgiadis and Peter Fantke

Abstract Uncertainty is always there and LCA is no exception to that. The
presence of uncertainties of different types and from numerous sources in LCA
results is a fact, but managing them allows to quantify and improve the precision of
a study and the robustness of its conclusions. LCA practice sometimes suffers from
an imbalanced perception of uncertainties, justifying modelling choices and
omissions. Identifying prevalent misconceptions around uncertainties in LCA is a
central goal of this chapter, aiming to establish a positive approach focusing on the
advantages of uncertainty management. The main objectives of this chapter are to
learn how to deal with uncertainty in the context of LCA, how to quantify it,
interpret and use it, and how to communicate it. The subject is approached more
holistically than just focusing on relevant statistical methods or purely mathematical
aspects. This chapter is neither a precise statistical method description, nor a
philosophical essay about the concepts of uncertainty, knowledge and truth,
although you will find a little bit of both. This chapter contains (1) an introduction
of the essential terminology and concepts of relevance for LCA; (2) a discussion of
main sources of uncertainty and how to quantify them; (3) a presentation of
approaches to calculate uncertainty for the final results (propagation); (4) a dis-
cussion of how to use uncertainty information and how to take it into account in the

R.K. Rosenbaum (&)
IRSTEA, UMR ITAP, ELSA Research Group and ELSA-PACT—Industrial
Chair for Environmental and Social Sustainability, 361 rue Jean-François Breton,
BP 5095, 34196 Montpellier, France
e-mail: ralph.rosenbaum@irstea.fr
S. Georgiadis
Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science,
Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark
S. Georgiadis
Global Decision Support Initiative, Technical University of Denmark,
Kongens Lyngby, Denmark
P. Fantke
Division for Quantitative Sustainability Assessment, Department of Management
Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark
© Springer International Publishing AG 2018 271
M.Z. Hauschild et al. (eds.), Life Cycle Assessment,
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-56475-3_11