Page 197 - Accelerating out of the Great Recession

APPENDIX B

making their plans based on estimates of gross domestic prod-
uct (GDP) growth that were higher (often significantly) than
official forecasts at the time. Only 57 percent saw a threat of
economic protectionism and increased government regulation.
Even for those who expected shifts in government and con-
sumer behavior, their business expectations were not consistent
with those beliefs. Of the 71 percent who expected consumers
to become more price sensitive in 2009, over a third were also
planning to increase prices in 2009 in response to their own ris-
ing costs.
By September, it became clear that companies were taking
better account of the impact of the recession. As markets picked
up from March 2009 onward, the survey respondents were able
to better assess the effect of the downturn on their businesses
and also to better comprehend the trends in the external envi-
ronment. This has led them to a better understanding of the
macroeconomic and business climates.
Forecasts for GDP growth in September were more closely
aligned with International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates,
and roughly 90 percent of the respondents said that they were
planning for a U- or an L-shaped recession. Seventy-five per-
cent of respondents polled in September believed that trade
protectionism would increase, compared with 57 percent in
March. Reflecting the public debate in their countries, this fig-
ure was higher (more than 80 percent) for trade-deficit coun-
tries such as the United States, France, Spain, and Italy, and sig-
nificantly lower (roughly 65 percent) in trade-surplus countries
such as Germany and Japan. A similar percentage of respon-
dents also expected to see more policies oriented toward the
rebalancing of global trade, as well as the introduction of higher
levels of financial and labor protectionism.

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