Page 138 - Biorefinery 2030 Future Prospects for the Bioeconomy (2015)

106 5 General Conclusion

temporally. These statistical foundations will require definitions, indicators and
databases to be created.
In the past, such foundations were often developed by countries that championed
a new field and united under the stewardship of the OECD in cooperation with the
national statistical centres of the countries concerned. Today, it is not certain
whether such a process could be implemented quickly. In Europe, an Economic
Observatory has been set up for an initial period of 3 years by the European
Commission (2013–2015), but without being mandated to create databases.
The methodology used for this case study of Bazancourt-Pomacle, is available to
OECD member countries interested in the field, as well as to companies and
professional organisations that would like to promote a series of case studies of
different types of biorefinery (territorial, in ports, converted oil refineries) using
different types of biomass.
A series of topics could and should be the subject of an empirical or experimen-
6
tal research agenda, but from the perspective of management decisions and public
policy, a multilateral agreement on definitions, indicators and databases is a pre-
requisite for this.

2.2 Will the Private Sector Continue Its Initial Efforts?

For the private sector to pursue or even intensify its investment in the biorefinery
sector, strategic prospects must be clearly visible. We have seen that these prospects
are clear in the case of Bazancourt-Pomacle, although the great majority of future
biorefineries will not be destined to become innovation platforms.
Meanwhile the conditions framing this investment must be sufficiently
favourable.
The world’s great societal challenges (demography, food, water, poverty, cli-
mate change etc.) are unavoidable reference points, except that investors need to
rely on a viable business model. In practice, in a global market economy,
bio-sourced products have to earn approval as an effective, competitive alternative
to oil-sourced products. For this to occur, market conditions have to guarantee a
level playing field between the different technological options, which is not yet the
case due to the advantage acquired through experience and the indirect subsidies
enjoyed by the oil economy. Certain non-European experts add quietly that these
great challenges should not even be mentioned when arguing in favour of new
industrial projects, given their total lack of “bankability.”
Can a proactive approach be envisaged?
The American Department of Energy (in agreement with the Department of
Agriculture) launched a series of studies in 2008 on the possibility of using a billion
tonnes of biomass in the United States in 2050 (the “One Billion Ton Biomass” 7

6
Hamichi et al. (2013).
7
US Department of Energy (2011).