Page 21 - Materials Chemistry, Second Edition

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Chapter 5 Uncertainty Assessment by Monte Carlo Simulation
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Types of Uncertainties in Environmental Impact Analysis
5.2.1 Parameter Uncertainty
5.2.2 Model Uncertainty
5.2.3 Uncertainty due to Choices
5.2.4 Spatial and Temporal Variability
5.2.5 Variability among Sources and Objects
5.3 Ways to Deal with Different Types of Uncertainty
5.3.1 Experiences to Assess Uncertainty in Life-Cycle Assessment
5.3.2 Former Uncertainty Assessment in Impact Pathway Analysis
5.4 Introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation
5.4.1 Use of Software Packages to Propagate Uncertainty
by Performing Monte Carlo Simulation
5.4.2 Framework for Uncertainty Assessment by Monte Carlo
Simulation in Environmental Impact Analysis
5.5 Uncertanty Assessment in Different Environmental Impact
Analysis Tools
5.5.1 Uncertainty Assessment in Life-Cycle Inventory
5.5.2 Uncertainty Assessment in Impact Pathway Analysis
5.5.3 Risk Characterization and Uncertainty Analysis
5.6 Types of Probability Distributions Used
5.7 Example: Risk Assessment to PCDD/Fs in Tarragona, Spain,
Using the Monte Carlo Approach
5.7.1 Determination of Distribution Functions
5.7.2 Risk Evaluation
5.8 Case Study: Uncertainty Assessment by Monte Carlo Simulation
for LCI and IPA applied to MSWI in Tarragona, Spain
5.8.1 Application of the Framework to Life-Cycle Inventory
of Electricity Produced by a Waste Incinerator
5.8.1.1 Assigning Probability Distributions to Considered
Parameters
5.8.1.2 Assessing Uncertainties and Variations in the
Calculation of LCI
5.8.1.3 Determining the Most Relevant Parameters in LCI
by Sensitivity Analysis
5.8.2 Application of Framework to IPA of Waste Incinerator
Emissions on a Local Scale
5.8.2.1 Assigning Probability Distributions to Considered
Parameters
5.8.2.2 Assessing Uncertainties and Variation in the
Calculation of IPA
5.8.2.3 Determining the Most Relevant Parameters in IPA
by Sensitivity Analysis
5.8.3 Comparison of Uncertainties in Life-Cycle Inventory and IPA

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