Page 17 - Introduction to Paleobiology and The Fossil Record

4 INTRODUCTION TO PALEOBIOLOGY AND THE FOSSIL RECORD

(a) (b)

Figure 1.2 Important figures in the history of science: (a) Sir Francis Bacon (1561–1626), who
established the methods of induction in science; and (b) Karl Popper (1902–1994), who explained that
scientists adopt the hypothetico-deductive method.

there have been two main approaches: induc- All men are mortal.
tion and deduction. Socrates is a man.
Sir Francis Bacon (1561–1626), a famous Therefore Socrates is mortal.
English lawyer, politician and scientist (Fig.
1.2a), established the methods of induction in Deduction is the core approach in mathemat-
science. He argued that it was only through ics and in detective work of course. How does
the patient accumulation of accurate observa- it work in science?
tions of natural phenomena that the explana- Karl Popper (1902–1994) explained the
tion would emerge. The enquirer might hope way science works as the hypothetico-
to see common patterns among the observa- deductive method. Popper (Fig. 1.2b) argued
tions, and these common patterns would that in most of the natural sciences, proof is
point to an explanation, or law of nature. impossible. What scientists do is to set up
Bacon famously met his death perhaps as a hypotheses, statements about what may or
result of his restless curiosity about every- may not be the case. An example of a hypoth-
thing; he was traveling in the winter of 1626, esis might be “Smilodon, the sabertoothed cat,
and was experimenting with the use of snow was exclusively a meat eater”. This can never
and ice to preserve meat. He bought a chicken, be proved absolutely, but it could be refuted
and got out of his coach to gather snow, which and therefore rejected. So what most natural
he stuffed inside the bird; he contracted pneu- scientists do is called hypothesis testing; they
monia and died soon after. The chicken, on seek to refute, or disprove, hypotheses rather
the other hand, was fresh to eat a week later, than to prove them. Paleontologists have made
so proving his case. many observations about Smilodon that tend
The other approach to understanding the to confi rm, or corroborate, the hypothesis: it
natural world is a form of deduction, where had long sharp teeth, bones have been found
a series of observations point to an inevitable with bite marks made by those teeth, fossilized
outcome. This is a part of classical logic dating Smilodon turds contain bones of other
back to Aristotle (384–322 bce) and other mammals, and so on. But it would take just
ancient Greek philosophers. The standard one discovery of a Smilodon skeleton with
logical form goes like this: leaves in its stomach area, or in its excrement,