Page 28 - Managing Global Warming

22 Managing Global Warming

The distinction in this calculator between FF energy and ZEE has required the
energy losses that account for the bulk of the difference between global TPES and
TFC to be distributed between the different primary energy sources from which they
arise. This has been done in proportion to their consumption in the manufacture of
electricity, thereby replacing electricity in the TFC data with its underlying primary
energy sources.
Power generation, whether measured in terms of financial investment or mega-
watts, is an emergent property of future energy policy not a forward indicator of it.
Considerable differences exist between the useful energy that is generated by dif-
ferent ZEE technologies. These differences arise largely from their intermittent
nature and their relative efficiencies. For example, solar energy is a function of
the available sunlight; wind energy depends on the wind; but nuclear energy is pro-
duced more or less continuously, albeit with thermal efficiency of only about one-
third. This means that to supply any given amount of useful end-user energy
requires significantly different amounts ofgeneratingcapacityaccordingtoits pri-
mary source.
Technological advances that, for example, have dramatically improved the effi-
ciency of solar photovoltaic cells have resulted in lower capital cost per unit of power,
and this will have been translated by the rebound effect into increased end-user
demand for energy [7]. This calculator assumes that in coming decades this increase
in efficiency-driven ZEE demand will follow the long-established pattern of
efficiency-driven increases in the production and use of FF energy. As the graph in
Fig. 2.4 (infra) shows, the historical evidence is that incremental ZEE may have
slowed the growth in FF production but has not yet begun to reduce it.

2.3 Plausibility

Policy robustness is central to building resilience, and building resilience is central to
minimizing the likelihood that systemic catastrophe might prevent future generations
from flourishing according to their own lights [8]. Robustness rests on the concept of
plausibility, and here means specifically that:

… rather than seeking strategies that are optimal for some set of expectations about
the long-term future, [policy robustness] seeks near-term strategies […] that perform
reasonably well compared to the alternatives across a wide range of plausible sce-
narios evaluated using the many value systems held by different parties to the
decision.
([9]: p. xiv).

Plausible has its Oxford English Dictionary meaning—“an argument, an idea, a state-
ment, etc.: seeming reasonable, probable, or truthful; convincing, believable.” This
subjective notion accommodates different and emerging perceptions of the world
about us. What may seem plausible to one person may not to another, or even to
the same person later when the context may have changed or she has become better