Page 94 - Managing Global Warming

64 Managing Global Warming

Fig. 2.9 Growth of ZEE to 2100 assuming rapid transition away from FF, and TFC growth in
line with historical trend.

achieved provided the infrastructure is laid down in the next couple of decades to
deliver ZEE at the necessary global scale in the second half of the century. This would
be consistent with the two to three generations needed for the global penetration of
major new technological infrastructure, but requires the alignment within the next
decade of the political, market, and social forces necessary to make it happen.

2.8 Conclusion

Robust policies are those that deliver at least adequate outcomes in the broadest range
of plausible futures. Robust policies rarely deliver optimal outcomes in what might
from time to time be considered the most probable futures; this is the price to be paid
for the system redundancy needed to protect against the undesirable futures currently
thought less likely, or not even contemplated, yet eminently possible. Climate policy
that is based on the more, rather than the less challenging plausible futures, will min-
imize a wider range of risks and will therefore be more robust.
Greater amounts of greenhouse gas removal allow for a more gradual transition
from fossil fuel energy to zero emissions energy. Too little greenhouse gas removal
forces the pace of the transition, possibly beyond the capacity of the global
energy infrastructure to cope; too much greenhouse gas removal could not only
have significant cost implications but might also promote complacency among