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increase the strength of the risk assessment process, and no Intermediate stages. Use software environments that can
modern risk management process is complete without exten- store, sort, and filter moderate amounts of data and generate
sive use ofthem. The modem software environment is such that new values from arithmetic and logical (if. . . then . . . else)
information is usually easily moved between various programs. combinations of input data. Simplest choices include mod-
In the early stages of a project, the computer should serve em spreadsheets and desktop databases.
chiefly as a data repository. Then, in subsequent stages, it Later stages. Provide for larger quantity data entry, manipu-
should house the algorithms-how the raw information, such lation, query, display, etc., in a long-term, secure, and user-
as wall thickness, population density, soil type, etc., is turned friendly environment. If spatial linking of information is
into risk information. In later stages ofthe project, data analysis desired, consider migrating to a GIS platform. If multiuser
and display routines should be available. Finally, computer access is desired, consider robust database environments. At
routines to ensure ease and consistency of data entry, model this stage, specialized software acquisition or development
tweaking, and generation of required output should be may be beneficial.
available.
Software use in risk modeling should always follow program A decision matrix can be set up to help evaluate software
development-not lead it. Software should be viewed as a tool options. An example (loosely based on an actual project evalua-
and different tools are appropriate for different phases of the tion) is shown inTable 8.2.
project. The costs shown in Table 8.2 will not be relevant for many
applications-they are for illustration only. Many variables will
Early stage. Use pencil and paper or simple graphics soft- impact the costs ofany alternative. These options should be bet-
ware to sketch preliminary designs of the risk assessment ter defined and hlly developed with software developers, pro-
system. Also use project management tools if desired, to plan grammers, IT resources, GIS providers, and other available
the project. expertise.
Table 8.2 Decision matrix of software options
Option Advantages Disadvantages Estimated costs
Use spreadsheet tools only. Inexpensive, completely flexible Requires a knowledgeable user, Minimal
and user customizable; data easily relatively fragile environment,
(but manually) moved to other some maintenance required;
applications; in-house lacks some features of modern
maintenance is possible. database environment.
Enhancehpgrade As above, plus makes information Some costs; performance 2&80 person-hours
spreadsheet tools to and capabilities accessible limitations in using (-$200&$7000)
increase security and to more users, automates spreadsheets.
user friendliness. some data handling.
Migrate model to custom Increased performance; more More costly, might have to rely 100-200 person-hours for
desktop database program robust data handling on outside programming stand-alone program; plus
with user-friendly front end; capabilities; more secure and expertise for changes. some hours to build links to
linked to GIS environment. user friendly; network and GIS (-$lO,000-$20,000)
GIS compatible.
Purchase commercial Existing customer base, vendor Costly; reduced flexibility and -$50,000 per user plus maintenance
software--option A support ofproduct; strong capabilities; some data fees; plus 8&200 hours of data
graphics modules included; conversion needed; limited conversion and entry effort
uses common database engine. data analysis capabilities;
outside programming support
needed for modifications.
Purchase commercial Inexpensive, directly compatible Reduced flexibility; outside <$10,0OOperuserplus somedata
software--option B. with existing data; secure and programming support needed f formatting and entry effort
user friendly; strong data or modifications.
analysis routines; uses
common Microsoft Access
database engine.
GIS module programmed Seamless integration with GIS Possible high costs; possibly less 10&200 person-hours for
directly into GIS software. environment is possible. common software; outside stand-alone program; plus some
programming support may hours to build links to GIS
he needed for modifications. (-$10,000-$20,000)
Modifyhpgrade commercial Keeps flexible spreadsheet Custom application; outside $2,000 plus 50-100 hours;
software to link directly to environment, adds power of programming support needed (-$5,000-$10,000); costs
existing spreadsheet tools. the existing application and for modifications. assume (and do not include
desktop database environment onginal cost of) an existing
software program