Page 10 - Probability Demystified

x PREFACE

. This book is not a book on how to win at gambling!

This book presents the basic concepts of probability in a simple,
straightforward, easy-to-understand way. It does require, however, a
knowledge of arithmetic (fractions, decimals, and percents) and a knowledge
of basic algebra (formulas, exponents, order of operations, etc.). If you need
a review of these concepts, you can consult another of my books in this
series entitled Pre-Algebra Demystified.
This book can be used to gain a knowledge of the basic concepts of
probability theory, either as a self-study guide or as a supplementary
textbook for those who are taking a course in probability or a course in
statistics that has a section on probability.
The basic concepts of probability are explained in the first two chapters.
Then the addition and multiplication rules are explained. Following
that, the concepts of odds and expectation are explained. The counting
rules are explained in Chapter 6, and they are needed for the binomial and
other probability distributions found in Chapters 7 and 8. The relationship
between probability and the normal distribution is presented in Chapter 9.
Finally, a recent development, the Monte Carlo method of simulation, is
explained in Chapter 10. Chapter 11 explains how probability can be used in
game theory and Chapter 12 explains how probability is used in actuarial
science. Special material on Bayes’ Theorem is presented in the Appendix
because this concept is somewhat more difficult than the other concepts
presented in this book.
In addition to addressing the concepts of probability, each chapter ends
with what is called a ‘‘Probability Sidelight.’’ These sections cover some of
the historical aspects of the development of probability theory or some
commentary on how probability theory is used in gambling and everyday life.
I have spent my entire career teaching mathematics at a level that most
students can understand and appreciate. I have written this book with the
same objective in mind. Mathematical precision, in some cases, has been
sacrificed in the interest of presenting probability theory in a simplified way.
Good luck!

Allan G. Bluman