Page 197 - Probability Demystified

186 CHAPTER 10 Simulation

Another thing that people tend to do is fear situations or events that
have a relatively small chance of happening and overlook situations or events
that have a higher chance of happening. For example, James Walsh in his
book entitled How Risk Affects Your Everyday Life states that if a person
is 20% overweight, the loss of life expectancy is 900 days (about 3 years)
whereas the loss of life expectancy from exposure to radiation emitted by
nuclear power plants is 0.02 days. So you can see it is much more unhealthy
being 20% overweight than it is living close to a nuclear power plant. One
of the reasons for this phenomenon is that the media tends to sensationalize
certain news events such as floods, hurricanes, and tornadoes and down-
plays other less newsworthy events such as smoking, drinking, and being
overweight.
In summary, then, when you make a decision or plan a course of action
based on probability, get the facts from a reliable source, weigh the
consequences of each choice of action, and then make your decision. Be sure
to consider as many alternatives as you can.