Page 66 - Probability Demystified

CHAPTER 3 The Addition Rules 55

Probability Sidelight

WIN A MILLION OR BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING?

Do you think you are more likely to win a large lottery and become a
millionaire or are you more likely to be struck by lightning?
Consider each probability. In a recent article, researchers estimated that
the chance of winning a million or more dollars in a lottery is about one in
2 million. In a recent Pennsylvania State Lottery, the chances of winning
a million dollars were 1 in 9.6 million. The chances of winning a $10 million
prize in Publisher’s Clearinghouse Sweepstakes were 1 in 2 million. Now the
chances of being struck by lightning are about 1 in 600,000. Thus, a person is
at least three times more likely to be struck by lightning than win a million
dollars!
But wait a minute! Statisticians are critical of these types of comparisons,
since winning the lottery is a random occurrence. But being struck by
lightning depends on several factors. For example, if a person lives in a
region where there are a lot of thunderstorms, his or her chances of being
struck increase. Also, where a person is during a thunder storm influences his
or her chances of being struck by lightning. If the person is in a safe place
such as inside a building or in an automobile, the probability of being struck
is relatively small compared to a person standing out in a field or on a golf
course during a thunderstorm.
So be wary of such comparisons. As the old saying goes, you cannot
compare apples and oranges.