Page 170 - Morgan Housel - The Psychology of Money_ Timeless Lessons on Wealth, Greed, and Happiness-Harriman House Limited (2020)

Imagine if a Japanese academic had written a newspaper article during this
time that said:
COBACOBA

Chin up, everyone. Within our lifetime our economy will grow to almost 15
times the size it was before the end of the war. Our life expectancy will
nearly double. Our stock market will produce returns like any country in
history has rarely seen. We will go more than 40 years without ever seeing

unemployment top 6%. We will become a world leader in electronic
innovation and corporate managerial systems. Before long we will be so
rich that we will own some of the most prized real estate in the United
States. Americans, by the way, will be our closest ally and will try to copy
our economic insights.

They would have been summarily laughed out of the room and asked to
seek a medical evaluation.

Keep in mind the description above is what actually happened in Japan in
the generation after the war. But the mirror opposite of Panarin looks absurd
in a way a forecast of doom doesn’t.

Pessimism just sounds smarter and more plausible than optimism.

Tell someone that everything will be great and they’re likely to either shrug

you off or offer a skeptical eye. Tell someone they’re in danger and you
have their undivided attention.

If a smart person tells me they have a stock pick that’s going to rise 10-fold
in the next year, I will immediately write them off as full of nonsense.

If someone who’s full of nonsense tells me that a stock I own is about to
collapse because it’s an accounting fraud, I will clear my calendar and listen
to their every word.

Say we’ll have a big recession and newspapers will call you. Say we’re

headed for average growth and no one particularly cares. Say we’re nearing