Page 268 - Socially Intelligent Agents Creating Relationships with Computers and Robots

Chapter 31

CHALLENGES IN AGENT BASED SOCIAL

SIMULATION OF MULTILATERAL
NEGOTIATION

Scott Moss
Centre for Policy Modelling, Manchester Metropolitan Univeristy

Abstract This paper is an interim report on the development of an analysis of negotiating
positionsandstrategiesinacomplexenvironmentalmanagementsituation. There
are seven categories of negotiating parties with many issues to be resolved. Each
issue could be resolved in a large number of ways. An abstract model that
captures the structure of the negotiations is reported. Simulations suggest that,
while bilateral negotiations readily reach agreement, multilateral negotiations do
not. The way forward for both modelling a the design of negotiation procedures
will require historical evidence about successful multilateral negotiations.

1. Introduction
It is not hard to find examples of failed negotiations. Recently, we have
seen the failure of attempts to build on the Kyoto agreement on reducing green
house gas emissions, the breakdown of the Oslo Accord under which Israel and
Palestine were moving towards a peaceful settlement of their differences, the
failure of OECD members to agree on trade liberalisation measures, the halting
progress of the Northern Ireland settlement under the terms of the Good Friday
Agreement.
At the same time, there are clearly many examples of successful negotiation
that form part of the small change of everyday life. In many households,
partners easily agree on what they shall have for dinner or how they shall
spend the evening or weekend. More momentously, couples agree to marry
or cohabit. The negotiations of transactions in houses are sometimes difficult
but frequently resolved. Even the distribution of assets in the course of divorce
proceedings is regularly achieved by agreement between the partners to the
dissolving marriage.