Page 49 - Sustainable Cities and Communities Design Handbook

26 Sustainable Cities and Communities Design Handbook

misinterpretations, miscalculations, and manipulation have plagued the
electrical power system in California and elsewhere. In conclusion, suggestions
are given for managing large complex technical systems under conditions
of uncertainty and intense public interest stake in avoiding crises.

CONCLUSION: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN AN AGILE
ENERGY SYSTEM

One of the most significant studies of the impacts of moving to an agile
energy system that rests on efficiency, conservation, and renewable power
assumptions and standards is a series of simulations. Comparing a business-
as-usual model with a “clean energy scenario,” Geller shows that a series of
10 clean energy strategies would in combination produce a decline in total
energy consumption in the United States starting in 2010.
In addition such renewable energy assumptions would reduce the national
energy intensity from 7.4 kBtu per dollar (1999 value) based on business as
usual to 5.5 kBtu per dollar with these and other clean energy strategies
implemented. These policies would cost by 2020 $674 billion in the United
States, while saving a total of $1229 billion over the same period. Hence, a net
gain of $554 billion would be achieved in addition to reducing American
dependency on international oil and gas supplies. In other words, the
investment would not only pay for itself but would produce a gain of 82%.
These savings would keep on growing into the future.
Such savings would reduce per-household costs for energy from all sources
(household, industrial, transportation, etc.) from about $5500 in 2000 to $3800
in 2020 under the clean energy scenario, compared to an increase per household
to about $6250 in annual energy costs with the business-as-usual scenario. In
short, the average household would reduce their energy bill by $2400, or 40%.
Jobs under the clean energy scenario would increase rather than decrease,
multiplying the economic value of the strategies. While not a part of the Geller
study, one estimate is that the clean energy strategy would create 870,000 jobs.
This is a clear example of the puzzling technology implementation
questiondif people could gain so much and it would not cost them anything,
why are we not doing all these good projects that would also clean the
environment and create jobs?
We have argued here that public policy directed toward advanced,
renewable technologies with agile energy systems, which are disbursed and
distributed energy generation on the regional and local level, mean the creation
of local businesses and jobs. The evidence is mounting in California that such
is the case with the enactment of measures to stem the California energy crisis,
legislation to set new standards, codes, and protocols. Above all, sunset
government programs are needed to stimulate initially the clean energy sector
while other programs limit the growth of fossil energy power generation.