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DEMONSTRATING THE CNN EFFECT
that changes in the content of government documents over time are
one proxy for changing policy. In the context of third-party military
interventions, three factors that are indicative of such change are
blame, framing, and the propensity for military intervention. If, for
example, potential interveners increasingly blame one party, adopt the
frame of the other, and mention the possibility of a military solution
more frequently and aggressively over time, it can be argued that the
policy is shifting toward military intervention.
The Policy Substance Test
The third test reviews government policy before and immediately after
incidents that meet the media criteria for a CNN effect. If the sub-
stance of policy has changed in the immediate aftermath of the inci-
dent, and no other significant event has occurred in this time period,
then the timing of such a change suggests that it was a reaction to the
event, adding further evidence for the CNN effect. In the following
chapter, the issue of policy substance in assessed in more detail, distin-
guishing different aspects of a policy that will be important to this
volume’s case study, wherein the policy substance test is applied.
The Linkage Test 35
Finally, if there is evidence of policy substance change after events
that meet the media criteria for the CNN effect, comments of key
decision-makers are reviewed to assess whether the media’s portrayal
of the incidents is cited as a factor in the decision to change policy.
Such a connection is critical for the CNN effect, because it is important
not only to demonstrate that the policy changed after such events,
but to also link the policy change to the media images and framing of
the events.
Although none of these four research strategies alone provide suffi-
cient evidence to support a case for the CNN effect, evidence from all
four methods in combination can generate substantial evidence for
such an outcome. Graph 2.2 outlines the five criteria (or steps) of the
challenging CNN effect model in graphical format.
When substantial evidence meeting the five criteria of the challeng-
ing CNN effect model exists, it is important to clarify the nature of
the effect. First, the CNN effect, using Nick Wheeler’s distinction,
does not necessarily need to be “determining,” but can often be
“enabling,” creating a short-term environment or window of oppor-
tunity in which policy can move forward. 74 It is assumed that such