Page 138 - The Drucker Lectures

15

Knowledge Lecture IV

1989

ur topic for tonight is the knowledge-based organization.
OAnd perhaps the best way to get going is to try to visualize
what a business may look like 10, 12, 15 years ahead.
It is a fairly reasonable assumption that the typical business
is likely to be quite a bit larger in terms of sales 10 or 12 years
from now because, barring major war or tremendous economic
collapse, the economies of the developed countries are likely to
grow pretty fast—and that’s even without the fairly substantial
boost that may come from the opening of Eastern Europe. At
the same time, let me say that business will employ on its own
payroll probably no more than a quarter or a third of the people
it employs now.
Notice that I said “on its own payroll.” I didn’t say that the num-
ber of people who work for this business would decline that way.
Yes, a large part of it will be fairly steady shrinkage of blue-
collar labor. I sat down the other day with the chairman of one
of the world’s very largest automobile companies, and its blue-
collar labor is down 40 percent over the last 10 years. And we
talked about that, to survive Japanese competition, it will have
to cut its blue-collar labor in the next 10 years by another 40
percent. In order to get union cooperation it will have to give job
security, while slashing its blue-collar payroll, which is not an
easy act, if it can be done at all.

[ 119