Page 141 - The Making of the German Post-war Economy

114 THE MAKING OF THE GERMAN POST-WAR ECONOMY

carried out 72 opinion polls between October 1945 and September 1949
testing German opinions on the economy, politics, and society, and
German polling institutes, namely the institute for the Erforschung der
öffentlichen Meinung, Marktforschung, Nachrichten, Informationen und
Dienstleistungen (EMNID) founded by the management-consultant Karl-
Georg von Stackelberg in Bielefeld in 1945, and the Institut für Demoskopie
(IfD) established by the pollster Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann in Allensbach
in 1947. Although public opinion polling was largely considered the first
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scientific mastering of public opinion to finally achieve a satisfactory
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degree of empirical validity, polling was soon criticised for its
methodological shortcomings, its negative effects on public opinion and
democratic life, and accused for antidemocratic manipulation instead of
monitoring public opinion. Nonetheless, due to the ideal situation for
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drawing random samples in occupied Germany – the then card index of
all German inhabitants serving as the distribution basis for food and
supply in times of rationing facilitated surveys – this study considers the
poll as a significant tool to assess and, thus, reflect public opinion between
1945 and 1949.
In addition, the reports by various local governments on the perceived
public sentiment regarding economic issues and the results of
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democratic elections on local, regional and federal levels will serve as an
indicator of public opinion. In connection with this, indeed, it has to be
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considered that the voting public is not synonymous with the general
public – particularly in the local elections 1946 to 1948. Despite a
consistent increase in the number of eligible voters in post-war West
Germany due to the return of expellees and prisoners of war, the
integration of refugees and the readmission of former National
Socialists, many people were still denied the right to vote due either to
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ongoing denazification programmes or to the residency clause. Besides, in
some Länder, such as Hesse, only political parties receiving a minimum of
fifteen percent of the votes obtained a mandate. Further, there were no
publicly distinguishable economic conceptions available to the electorate
until the run-up to the Landtag elections in spring 1947 and concrete
competing economic concepts, namely free market or planned economy,
did not enter the electoral campaign until the local elections in the second
half of the year 1948. Moreover, an individual’s electoral behaviour is
arguably a function of social structures and influenced by rational choice,
i.e. guided by instrumental reason; accordingly, individuals choose what
they believe to be the best means to achieve their given ends. Due to
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these factors the respective election results have limited explanatory power
and, thus have to be handled with care.