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bestsellers (e.g., Bell, 1968; Jungk and which argued that modernization theories
Galtung, 1969; Kahn and Wiener, 1967). and trickle-down assumptions of develop-
Most of these displayed an outspoken opti- ment were naïve and that the Third World
mism based on technological progress and was positioned in a system of unequal terms
focused on the benefits of space age tech- of trade that did not allow any betterment for
nologies and mass consumer goods (see the systemic reasons.
overview in Bell, 1997a). This optimism was After the decline of futures studies during
given credence by experiences in daily life. the late 1970s and the 1980s, we see a re-
Technological breakthroughs, such as the emergence of futures research with yet more
landing of an Apollo rocket and the first steps sophisticated methodologies, sharper methods,
of a man on the moon, were televised to a and a consciousness of time characterized
global audience. Mass-produced technology, by a fundamental contingency that is open
including automobiles and an increasing to the horizon of the possible and the politi-
plethora of household electronics, had cally shapeable (Bell, 1997a, 1997b; Boulding
become affordable to ever wider circles and Boulding, 1995). Contemporary social
throughout the wealthier countries. It was theory expressed this in its emphasis on
hoped that the Green Revolution would feed the ‘creativity of action’ (Joas, 1996)
the Third World, and that technology would and in the explicit inclusion of ‘human
trickle down to all people on the planet. agency’ as a factor (Emirbayer and Mische,
Yet, this technological optimism was soon 1998).
to give way to a more pessimistic perspec- In an effort to summarize the work cur-
tive. A variety of heterogeneous factors led to rently being undertaken within the field of
this shift. The oil crisis of the early 1970s led futures research, one can distinguish four
to a world-wide recession. The consequences major approaches: (1) forecasts, especially
of this abrupt stoppage of growth were felt those based on Delphi-Interviews with lead-
not only by motorists but by consumers ing experts in research and development
world-wide. The welfare-states of the First (e.g., Beck et al., 2000); (2) studies that
World ran into a crisis of legitimacy. The his- employ scenario building techniques about
torical compromise between capital and possible and probable futures (e.g., Schulz,
labor was put to a test as the cake for redistri- 1999, 2001d); (3) empirical research on the
bution had slowed down its growth or even futures of the past or present, that is., the
had stopped growing (Offe, 1987). The images of futures prevalent during past
Report to the Club of Rome by Dennis moments of time (Bell, 1997a); the processes
Meadows and his collaborators expressed a by which such past images of the future were
strong warning about the Limits of Growth constructed (Mannheim, 1936); and the effi-
(Meadows et al., 1972) and became famous cacy of these visions for social change – this
as it touched a chord of concern. An environ- is what can be called the sociology of the
mental movement began to emerge in an imaginary (Castoriadis, 1991); and (4) nor-
increasing number of industrialized countries mative or norm-analytical theorizing about
criticizing the abuse of planetary resources. preferable futures (Bell, 1997b), including
Other critics warned about the specter of a theorizing on the relationship of values and
Third World War. The growing arsenals of futures, as will be attempted here.
nuclear weapons had resulted in thousand- The principles of competition, conflict,
fold overkill capacities. Technology came to and cooperation play a role in all four of
be seen as an imminent threat by the Cold these approaches. Futuristic forecasts
War’s peace movement. The Third World that draw on the expertise of scientists, engi-
developed the Dependency School (Amin, neers, economists, and other specialists
1977; Cardoso and Faletto, 1979; Frank, 1967), accept implicitly their assumptions about