Page 53 - Accelerating out of the Great Recession

ACCELERATING OUT OF THE GREAT RECESSION

industry (1780s to 1840s). The second wave was triggered by
the emergence of the railway and the growth of the steel indus-
try (1840s to 1890s). The third wave was sparked by the large-
scale commercialization of electricity and its development for
general use (1890s to 1940s). The fourth wave, which started in
the 1940s, came about as the result of the development of
petrochemicals and the expansion of the automobile industry as
the motor car (invented 50 years earlier) became affordable for
everyone.
Some argue that the fourth wave is not yet finished and that
the world is in its winter phase—a period of slower economic
growth. Others insist that a short fifth phase began in 1980 to
1985, driven by new developments in information technology
and telecommunications. According to this view, the world has
entered an autumn/winter phase that could last until 2015 to
2025, although there is a strong basis for arguing that the
increasing pace of technological change is shortening the cycles.
Whether the world is in its fourth or fifth wave of economic
development, however, there is no disputing the fact that it
might be in a phase of decline that will last for a number of
years.

■ EXECUTIVES EXPECT A LONG PERIOD ■
OF SLOW GROWTH

Given the bleak economic environment and outlook we have
discussed, we felt it necessary to move beyond the opinions of
economists and other expert commentators to gain a thorough
understanding of the expectations and actions of leading com-
panies in the industrialized world. To that end, we conducted

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