Page 213 - Encyclopedia Of World History

diseases, plant 563

Future Prospects United States will not, and as was true during the Cold
The imperative to minimize crop losses from diseases will War, the United States and China are again at logger-
only intensify in the future as the human population heads, with Europe, Africa, and the rest of Asia unsure
grows exponentially. At their origin 130,000 years ago, which to follow. If humans do not limit their numbers,
modern humans cannot have numbered more than a few plant diseases, if unchecked by science, will limit popu-
thousand. Only around 1800 did the human population lation by famine. Ireland in 1845 and 1846 may be the
number 1 billion.The population doubled by 1940 and earth writ small.
again by 1975. Today, more than 6 billion humans
Christopher M. Cumo
crowd the earth, and demographers fear our numbers
may swell to upwards of 9 billion by 2045.
To avert famine on an unprecedented scale, farmers
Further Reading
must triple food production by then. To fall even 2 per-
Agrios, G. N. (1997). Plant pathology (4th ed). San Diego, CA: Acade-
cent short of the goal, demographers believe, will con- mic Press.
demn some 270 million people to starvation. Only with Carefoot, G. L., & Sprott, E. R. (1967). Famine on the wind: Plant dis-
eases & human history. London: Angus & Robertson.
the highest yielding varieties of potatoes, corn, soybeans,
Francki, R. I. B., Milne, R. G., & Hatta,T. (1985). Atlas of plant viruses.
wheat, and rice, the sustenance of humanity, can humans Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
hope to avert widespread starvation. But only a small Harris, K. F., & Maramorosch, K. (Eds.). (1980). Vectors of plant
pathogens. New York: Academic Press.
number of varieties of any crop can yield enough food for Klinkowski, M. (1970). Catastrophic plant diseases. Annual Review of
a hungry world.The future will only exacerbate the prob- Phytopathology, 8, 37–60.
Littlefield, L. J. (1981). Biology of the plant rusts: An introduction. Ames:
lem of genetic homogeneity. Crops may become more
Iowa State University Press.
rather than less vulnerable to epidemics. Matthews, R. E. F. (1991). Plant virology (3rd ed.). New York: Academic
The future may bring new solutions but at the moment Press.
Schumann, G. L. (1991). Plant diseases:Their biology & social impact. St.
only two seem viable. First, scientists might use the Paul, MN: American Phytopathological Society.
emerging technology of genetic engineering to combine Shurtlett, M. C. (Ed.). (1980). A compendium of corn diseases (2nd ed.).
St. Paul, MN: American Phytopathological Society.
disease resistance and maximum yield in a crop, an
Smith, K. M. (1972). A textbook of plant virus diseases. New York: Aca-
achievement that has eluded the traditional plant breeder. demic Press.
But there are obstacles to this goal. In the 1990s, fright- Stefferud, A. (Ed.). (1953). Plant diseases: The yearbook of agriculture.
Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.
ened Americans branded as “Frankenfood” the first vari- Tatum, L.A. (1971).The southern corn leaf blight epidemic. Science, 171,
ety of corn genetically engineered to be resistant to an 1113–1116.
Thurston, H. D. (1973). Threatening plant diseases. Annual Review of
insect. As in the past, public fears may slow the advance
Phytopathology, 11, 27–52.
of science. Even with public support, the engineering of Ullstrup, A. J. (1972). The impacts of the southern corn leaf blights
disease-resistant plants is an arms race. Mutation will epidemics of 1971–1972. Annual Review of Phytopathology, 10,
37–50.
force scientists to engineer plants resistant to new Van Regenmortel, M. H. V., & Fraenkel-Conrat, H. (Eds.). (1986). The
pathogens ad infinitum. One cannot foresee the outcome plant viruses. New York: Plenum.
Vanderplank, J. E. (1963). Plant diseases: Epidemics & control. New York:
of this struggle between pathogen and plant.
Academic Press.
Second, humans might limit their numbers. Contra- Webster, R. K., & Gunnell, P. S. (Eds.). (1992). Compendium of rice dis-
ceptive devices make this approach possible.The United eases. St. Paul, MN: American Phytopathological Society.
Western, J. H. (Ed.). (1971). Diseases of crop plants. New York:
Nations has for decades advocated population control, Macmillan.
but with the notable exception of China, most nations Wiese, M.V. (1987). Compendium of wheat diseases. St. Paul, MN: Amer-
ican Phytopathological Society.
are far from committed to holding their population in
Woodham-Smith, C. (1962). The great hunger, Ireland, 1845–1849.
check.Will the rest of the world comply? At present the New York: Harper & Row.