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Life cycle sustainability assessment in the energy sector 151

Table 5.6 Summary of scenarios in this case study (all reductions refer to a 2009
baseline year)

Scenarios Subscenarios
65% • Limited action is taken ! 65%-1 Subscenario with coal
to prevent climate CCS but no new
change nuclear build. The
• Total (direct) UK mix in 2070: 68%
GHG emissions reduce fossil and 32%
by 24% (including renewables
international aviation ! 65%-2 Subscenario with both
and shipping) by 2070 new nuclear build
• Electricity is signifi- and coal CCS. The
cantly decarbonized, mix in 2070: 37%
with emissions reduced fossil, 30% nuclear,
by 65% by 2050 and and 33% renewables
80% by 2070
• Electricity demand
increases slowly,
increasing by 50% by
2070

80% • Decarbonization of ! 80% Only one subscenario
electricity is interme- considered. Includes
diate between scenar- new nuclear build
ios “65%” and and some coal CCS.
“100%”, reaching The mix in 2070:
80% reduction by 10% fossil, 29%
2050 (in line with nuclear, and 61%
Government targets renewables
for the whole econ-
omy) and eventually
98% by 2070
• Follows the same elec-
tricity demand profile
as the 100% scenario
100% • Similar cumulative ! 100%-1 Subscenario with no
whole-economy GHG new nuclear build,
emissions to UKERC’s dominated by solar
“Carbon Ambition” PV and offshore
scenario (UKERC, wind. The mix in
2009)in line with the 2070: 100%
UK GHG budgets renewables
• Total UK GHG emis- ! 100%-2 Subscenario with new
sions reduce by 80% nuclear build and
Continued