Page 33 - Biorefinery 2030 Future Prospects for the Bioeconomy (2015)

xxxii Introduction

In terms of strategic decision making by industrials, financiers, governments and
other actors, the study follows a method that has been very well described by Curry
and Hodgson (2008). Indeed, we might consider that the first 5-year period
(2015–2020) is both conditioned by the past (dependent on its previous direction)
and therefore relatively easy to forecast, but also corresponds to the time when the
first initiatives, trials and errors, tests, industrial and commercial pilot schemes will
act as signs foretelling what is to come. The second period (2020–2030) is when the
stakeholders of the Bazancourt-Pomacle biorefinery and other biorefineries will
have to put into action on a large scale what has been prepared in the preceding
period and will face a great deal of uncertainty over the success of their strategy. 6
The third period (2030–2050) should, in theory, be when the initial vision will be
fulfilled (energy transition, sustainable development, the circular economy). For
reasons of mandate and of resources, this study will be limited to the first two
phases, but in terms of methodology will follow this chronological order.

• Insofar as we cannot understand economic, societal and environmental aspects
without understanding the interactions between the biorefinery’s actors them-
selves, and between the biorefinery and its environment (in the sense of actors
external to the biorefinery as well as in the generic sense), one chapter is devoted
to the notion of industrial ecology. The study and the report are therefore divided
into four main chapters: history, the business model, industrial symbiosis and
future prospects.

Reims Cedex, France Pierre-Alain Schieb
Honorine Lescieux-Katir
Maryline The ´not
Barbara Cle ´ment-Larosie `re

References

Curry A, Hodgson A (2008) Seeing in multiple horizons: connecting futures to strategy. J Futures
Stud 13(1):1–20
OCDE (2009) La bioe ´conomie a ` l’horizon 2030: quel programme d’action ? OCDE, Paris
OECD (2011) Future prospects for industrial biotechnology. OECD

6
It is indeed during this period that the tension between present and future forces is strongest.