Page 81 -
P. 81

80   Part I  •  Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview

                                    marketing department that implements an electronic commerce (e-commerce) site. Within
                                    hours, orders far exceed production capacity. The production department, which plans
                                    its own schedule, cannot meet demand. It may gear up for as high demand as possi-
                                    ble. Ideally and independently, the department should produce only a few products in
                                    extremely large quantities to minimize manufacturing costs. However, such a plan might
                                    result in large, costly inventories and marketing difficulties caused by the lack of a variety
                                    of products, especially if customers start to cancel orders that are not met in a timely way.
                                    This situation illustrates the sequential nature of decision making.
                                         A systems point of view assesses the impact of every decision on the entire sys-
                                    tem. Thus, the marketing department should make its plans in conjunction with other
                                    departments. However, such an approach may require a complicated, expensive, time-
                                    consuming analysis. In practice, the MSS builder may close the system within narrow
                                    boundaries, considering only the part of the organization under study (the marketing and/
                                    or production department, in this case). By simplifying, the model then does not incorpo-
                                    rate certain complicated relationships that describe interactions with and among the other
                                    departments. The other departments can be aggregated into simple model components.
                                    Such an approach is called suboptimization.
                                         If a suboptimal decision is made in one part of the organization without considering
                                    the details of the rest of the organization, then an optimal solution from the point of view
                                    of that part may be inferior for the whole. However, suboptimization may still be a very
                                    practical approach to decision making, and many problems are first approached from this
                                    perspective. It is possible to reach tentative conclusions (and generally usable results) by
                                    analyzing only a portion of a system, without getting bogged down in too many details.
                                    After a solution is proposed, its potential effects on the remaining departments of the
                                    organization can be tested. If no significant negative effects are found, the solution can
                                    be implemented.
                                         Suboptimization may also apply when simplifying assumptions are used in mod-
                                    eling a specific problem. There may be too many details or too many data to incorporate
                                    into a specific decision-making situation, and so not all of them are used in the model.
                                    If the solution to the model seems reasonable, it may be valid for the problem and thus
                                    be adopted. For example, in a production department, parts are often partitioned into
                                    A/B/C inventory categories. Generally, A items (e.g., large gears, whole assemblies) are
                                    expensive (say, $3,000 or more each), built to order in small batches, and inventoried in
                                    low quantities; C items (e.g., nuts, bolts, screws) are very inexpensive (say, less than $2)
                                    and ordered and used in very large quantities; and B items fall in between. All A items
                                    can be handled by a detailed scheduling model and physically monitored closely by man-
                                    agement; B items are generally somewhat aggregated, their groupings are scheduled, and
                                    management reviews these parts less frequently; and C items are not scheduled but are
                                    simply acquired or built based on a policy defined by management with a simple eco-
                                    nomic order quantity (EOQ) ordering system that assumes constant annual demand. The
                                    policy might be reviewed once a year. This situation applies when determining all criteria
                                    or modeling the entire problem becomes prohibitively time-consuming or expensive.
                                         Suboptimization may also involve simply bounding the search for an optimum
                                    (e.g., by a heuristic) by considering fewer criteria or alternatives or by eliminating large
                                    portions of the problem from evaluation. If it takes too long to solve a problem, a good-
                                    enough solution found already may be used and the optimization effort terminated.


                                    Descriptive Models
                                    Descriptive models describe things as they are or as they are believed to be. These
                                    models are typically mathematically based. Descriptive models are extremely useful in
                                    DSS for investigating the consequences of various alternative courses of action under








           M02_SHAR9209_10_PIE_C02.indd   80                                                                      1/25/14   7:45 AM
   76   77   78   79   80   81   82   83   84   85   86