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Chapter 2 • Foundations and Technologies for Decision Making 85

5. Define scenario. How is a scenario used in decision making?
6. Some “errors” in decision making can be attributed to the notion of decision making
from the gut. Explain what is meant by this and how such errors can happen.

2.6 Decision Making: the choice Phase

Choice is the critical act of decision making. The choice phase is the one in which the
actual decision and the commitment to follow a certain course of action are made. The
boundary between the design and choice phases is often unclear because certain activi-
ties can be performed during both of them and because the decision maker can return
frequently from choice activities to design activities (e.g., generate new alternatives while
performing an evaluation of existing ones). The choice phase includes the search for,
evaluation of, and recommendation of an appropriate solution to a model. A solution to a
model is a specific set of values for the decision variables in a selected alternative. Choices
can be evaluated as to their viability and profitability.
Note that solving a model is not the same as solving the problem the model represents.
The solution to the model yields a recommended solution to the problem. The problem is
considered solved only if the recommended solution is successfully implemented.
Solving a decision-making model involves searching for an appropriate course
of action. Search approaches include analytical techniques (i.e., solving a formula),
algorithms (i.e., step-by-step procedures), heuristics (i.e., rules of thumb), and blind
searches (i.e., shooting in the dark, ideally in a logical way). These approaches are
examined in Chapter 9.
Each alternative must be evaluated. If an alternative has multiple goals, they must
all be examined and balanced against each other. sensitivity analysis is used to deter-
mine the robustness of any given alternative; slight changes in the parameters should
ideally lead to slight or no changes in the alternative chosen. What-if analysis is
used to explore major changes in the parameters. Goal seeking helps a manager deter-
mine values of the decision variables to meet a specific objective. All this is discussed
in Chapter 9.

sectiOn 2.6 revieW QuestiOns

1. Explain the difference between a principle of choice and the actual choice phase of
decision making.
2. Why do some people claim that the choice phase is the point in time when a decision
is really made?
3. How can sensitivity analysis help in the choice phase?

2.7 Decision Making: the iMPleMentation Phase

In The Prince, Machiavelli astutely noted some 500 years ago that there was “nothing more
difficult to carry out, nor more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to handle, than to
initiate a new order of things.” The implementation of a proposed solution to a problem is,
in effect, the initiation of a new order of things or the introduction of change. And change
must be managed. User expectations must be managed as part of change management.
The definition of implementation is somewhat complicated because implementation
is a long, involved process with vague boundaries. Simplistically, the implementation
phase involves putting a recommended solution to work, not necessarily implementing
a computer system. Many generic implementation issues, such as resistance to change,
degree of support of top management, and user training, are important in dealing with

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