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List of Figures

Figure 1. Average patent citations γ ( ) per patent by year ................................................. 7
Figure 2. Stylized schematic of regression comparison of two related populations (a and
b) of patents or Web hits to identify the significance and simulated difference (∆ b-a)....... 8

Figure 3. Annual granted U.S. energy patents (1975–2008) by technology area ............. 10

Figure 4. A comparison of renewable energy patents generated by U.S. and non-U.S.
inventors ............................................................................................................................ 13
Figure 5. Example collaboration networks for a selected biofuel inventor (dashed circle).

........................................................................................................................................... 16
Figure 6. Average collaboration and inventing team size is increasing in energy .......... 16
Figure 7. Summary network visualizations for each technology area .............................. 17
Figure 8. Web hits versus future prior art citations from patents in 1995 (A) and 2005 (B)
solar energy patents........................................................................................................... 20
Figure 9. Signal (A, C) and aggregator (B, D) Web hits versus future prior art citations
from patents for licensed and unlicensed National Renewable Energy Laboratory patents

........................................................................................................................................... 21
Figure 10. Predictive commercial value of patents using proposed Web hits relationship
........................................................................................................................................... 29
Figure 11. An idealized schematic of how future databases might be built and linked in

order to understand how science investment influences economic outcomes .................. 31

List of Tables

Table 1. Domestic Sources by State for Granted U.S. Energy Patents (1975–2008) ...... 12
Table 2. Market Sources of Patents .................................................................................. 14
Table 3. Regressed and Simulated Determination of Sources for Solar Technical and
Commercial Breakthrough Innovation ............................................................................. 24
Table 4. Regressed and Simulated Determination of Sources for Wind Technical and
Commercial Breakthrough Innovation ............................................................................. 26
Table 5. Regressed and Simulated Determination of Sources for Biofuel Technical and
Commercial Breakthrough Innovation ............................................................................. 27

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