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Principles of Risk Communication 43

These risk perception factors determine a person’s emotional response
to risk information. For example, levels of fear, worry, anxiety, anger, and
outrage tend to be greatest and most intense when a risk is perceived to be
involuntary, unfair, not beneficial, not under one’s personal control, and
managed by untrustworthy individuals or organizations.
These risk perception factors are also subject to biases that affect judg-
ments of risk. These biases include
• Information availability. The availability of information about an event
frequently leads to overestimation of the frequency of the event. People
tend to assign greater probability to events of which they are frequently
reminded (e.g., in the news media, scientific literature, or discussions
among friends or colleagues) or to events that are easy to recall or imag-
ine through concrete examples or dramatic images.
• Overconfidence. People are often overconfident about their ability to
avoid harm. A majority of people, for example, consider themselves less
likely than average to get cancer, get fired from their job, or get mugged.
Overconfidence is most prevalent when high levels of perceived per-
sonal control lead to reduced feelings of susceptibility. Many people fail
to use seat belts, for example, because of the unfounded belief that they
are better or safer than the average driver. In a similar vein, many teen-
agers often engage in high-risk behaviors (e.g., drinking and driving,
smoking, unprotected sex) because of perceptions, supported by peers,
of invulnerability and overconfidence in their ability to avoid harm.
• Aversion to uncertainty. People typically have a strong aversion to
uncertainty concerning risks. This often translates into a marked pref-
erence and demand by the people for statements of fact over statements
of probability: the language of risk assessment. Despite statements by
experts that precise information is seldom available, people frequently
demand absolute answers. For example, people often demand to know
exactly what will happen, not what might happen.
• Confirmatory bias. People often seek out information that confirms their
preexisting beliefs. Once a belief about a risk is formed, new evidence is
made to fit, contrary information is filtered out, ambiguous data are inter-
preted as confirmation, and consistent information is seen as “proof.”

The Mental Noise Model
The mental noise model focuses on how people process information under
stress. Mental noise is caused by the stress and strong emotions associ-
ated with exposures to risks. When people are stressed and upset, their
ability to process information typically becomes severely impaired. In