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External Drivers: The Voice of Society 31

voiced as far back as the 1970s, but not until the early 2000s were
these concerns fully accepted. Scientific doubts and economic con-
cerns led the United States to decline participation in the Kyoto Pro-
tocol, the international agreement mentioned in Chapter 2 that set
targets for industrialized countries to reduce their greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions* by 2012. There is now overwhelming evidence
that the Earth’s climate is changing and that anthropogenic emis-
sions of GHGs are a major contributor to global warming [2]. Al Gore
has called climate change a “global emergency,” but it remains diffi-
cult for people to change their behavior when the consequences lie in
the distant future.
There is still considerable uncertainty about how rapidly tem-
peratures will rise and the extent of the resulting impacts, but the
need for action is apparent. Figure 3.1, based on the Stern report
issued by the United Kingdom government, illustrates the potential
catastrophic consequences of rising global temperatures [3]. As it
turns out, the targets set by the Kyoto Protocol were very modest,
and it is generally agreed that a new international accord will
be needed with more stringent reductions if we hope to stabilize

FIGURE 3.1 Projected impacts of climate change [3].

*The six most common greenhouse gases are: carbon dioxide (CO ), methane
2
(CH ), nitrous oxide (N O), sulfur hexafluoride (SF ), perfluorocarbons (PFCs),
4 2 6
and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). The global warming potential (GWP) of each gas
can be expressed in terms of equivalent CO emissions, for example methane and
2
nitrous oxide have a 100-year GWP of 25 and 298, respectively, and thus are much
more potent than CO .
2