Page 85 - Encyclopedia of Business and Finance

eobf_B 7/5/06 2:55 PM Page 62

Business Cycle

Business cycle expansions and contractions

Business cycle reference dates Duration in months
Cycle
Contraction
(trough from Expansion Trough from Peak from
Trough Peak previous peak) (trough to peak) previous trough previous peak
December 1854 June 1857 — 30 — —
December 1858 October 1860 18 22 48 40
June 1861 April 1865 8 46 30 54
December 1867 June 1869 32 18 78 50
December 1870 October 1873 18 34 36 52
March 1879 March 1882 65 36 99 101
May 1885 March 1887 38 22 74 60
April 1888 July 1890 13 27 35 40
May 1891 January 1893 10 20 37 30
June 1894 December 1895 17 18 37 35
June 1897 June 1899 18 24 36 42
December 1900 September 1902 18 21 42 39
August 1904 May 1907 23 33 44 56
June 1908 January 1910 13 19 46 32
January 1912 January 1913 24 12 43 36
December 1914 August 1918 23 44 35 67
March 1919 January 1920 7 10 51 17
July 1921 May 1923 18 22 28 40
July 1924 October 1926 14 27 36 41
November 1927 August 1929 13 21 40 34
March 1933 May 1937 43 50 64 93
June 1938 February 1945 13 80 63 93
October 1945 November 1948 8 37 88 45
October 1949 July 1953 11 45 48 56
May 1954 August 1957 10 39 55 49
April 1958 April 1960 8 24 47 32
February 1961 December 1969 10 106 34 116
November 1970 November 1973 11 36 117 47
March 1975 January 1980 16 58 52 74
July 1980 July 1981 6 12 64 18
November 1982 July 1990 16 92 28 108
March 1991 March 2001 8 120 100 128
November 2001 8 — — —
Average, all cycles:
1854–2001 (32 cycles) 17 38 55 1 56
1854–1919 (16 cycles) 22 27 48 2 49
1919–1945 (6 cycles) 18 35 53 53
1945–2001 (10 cycles) 10 57 67 67
Average, peacetime cycles:
1854–2001 (27 cycles) 18 33 51 3 52
1954–1919 (14 cycles) 22 24 46 4 47
1919–1945 (5 cycles) 20 26 46 45
1945–2001 (8 cycles) 10 52 63 63

1
31 cycles
2
15 cycles
3 26 cycles
4
13 cycles
Notes:
1) Figures printed in bold italic are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, Korean war and Vietnam war), the postwar contractors, and the full
cycles that induce the wartime expansions.
2) The determination that the last contraction ended in November 2001 is the most recent decision of the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau
of Economic Research.
SOURCE: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1050 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge MA 02133.

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62 ENCYCLOPEDIA OF BUSINESS AND FINANCE, SECOND EDITION