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Introduction Chapter | 1 15


             Predictable
             The electricity that is generated by thermal power stations is predictable,
             because the electricity output can be controlled by altering the fuel supply. This
             makes the electricity controllable, but for coal and nuclear (generally known
             as ‘base load’ power plants), this controllability cannot be managed over short-
             time periods—it will likely take a minimum of several hours to adjust the power
             output of a large thermal power station. Therefore, coal and nuclear power
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             stations are not dispatchable. By contrast, many renewable power stations are
             not predictable, notably wind and solar. These sources of energy depend on
             environmental conditions, for example, wind speed or the amount of sunlight
             striking a solar panel, and so are intermittent. An exception is tidal power (both
             tidal stream and tidal range), which, because tides are governed by astronomical
             forces, is extremely predictable (Chapter 3). Note that at relatively low levels of
             renewable energy penetration, errors in forecasts are likely to remain within
             the parameters that the system is designed to cope with [9]. However, for
             higher levels of wind and solar penetration, these forecast errors could become
             significant.

             Reliable
             It is important for an electrical grid system to have a secure level of base load
             power—insufficient electricity to meet peak demand, but sufficient to ‘keep the
             lights on’. Currently, such continuous base load tends to be supplied by coal
             and nuclear power plants. Wind and solar power are weather-dependant, and
             hydroelectric can be influenced by droughts; therefore, these forms of renewable
             energy are not reliable. Some form of storage would improve the reliability of
             renewable energy sources, and tidal lagoons (Chapter 3) present one opportunity
             for energy storage.

             Dispatchable
             Electricity generating plants that can be turned on or off, or which can vary their
             power output in response to changes in demand, are known as dispatchable.
             Base load power plants such as coal and nuclear are not dispatchable, because
             it will take many hours to adjust their electrical output, and so they cannot
             closely match demand. However, open cycle gas turbine (OCGT) power plants
             are a good example of dispatchable electricity, because the power output of an
             OCGT plant can be adjusted within a short-time frame. For example, from
             cold start, an OCGT power plant can be fully operational in around 30 min
             [10]. It is difficult for renewable sources to be dispatchable, but conventional
             hydroelectric schemes are one exception, because it is possible to control the
             volume of water that flows through the penstock. In addition, the 1.7 GW



             6. By contrast, gas power stations are dispatchable, because their electrical output can be varied at
               short timescales to respond to changes in demand.
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