Page 36 - Geology and Geochemistry of Oil and Gas

14 SYSTEMS APPROACH IN SCIENCE

possess relatively stable inherited structure, evolve and change with time. At a given
moment in geologic time, such systems are stable integral structures in a state of
dynamic equilibrium with the environment. This equilibrium is caused by a com-
bined effect of a set of natural factors.
Forecast of the structure and behavior of dynamic systems in time is the matter of
systems forecasting. A specific feature of the systems forecast in geology is the
necessity and feasibility to forecast the behavior and structure of the geologic system
both in time and space. On the basis of the structure of the space–time continuum of
lithosphere, it is possible to identify changes in geologic system with depth and time.
Thus, the geologic forecast is actually a ‘‘retrocast’’, directed back in time and in
depth. According to Kosygin and Solovyev (1969), the dynamic and retrospective
geologic systems are actually dynamic systems with the forward and reverse time
count.
The cognition of geologic systems is based on their modeling. Modeling in ge-
ology is a creation of a physical, matter-structural object reflecting major properties
of the system studied in an isomorphic way. It may also be a logical-mathematical
construction reflecting equally the structure and behavior of the system being stud-
ied. Modeling in geology is commonly utilized for a brief characterization of systems
as well as for the forecast of their behavior and structure in time and space (Bury-
akovsky et al., 1982).
A specific feature of mathematical modeling of dynamic geologic systems and
geologic processes is the necessity to take into account the time factor. The modeling
of dynamic geologic systems uncovers the unity of such opposite methodological
approaches as the systemic-structural and genetic-historical. The merger of the
structural and historical approaches enables one to consider a geologic system as a
natural structure, which (1) is relatively stable during a specific time period, and (2) is
evolving and changing over a long interval of geologic time.
Inclusion of geologic time into mathematical models is difficult. This is caused by
the existence of both absolute and relative geologic time, which are totally different
in nature. The origin (zero point) of the absolute time is identical for the entire Earth,
whereas the relative time is determined using the stratigraphic and paleontologic
techniques with no zero-point time count. It is not possible to use the relative ge-
ologic time in mathematical geologic models. An opinion that the absolute time
cannot be used as the input parameter in mathematical modeling of dynamic ge-
ologic systems is totally ungrounded.
Description of a geologic system or selection of the mathematical tools for
modeling depends on the nature of system studied (mainly on its complexity and
organization). Geologic systems belong to the realm of complex and supercomplex,
poorly organized (non-uniform) natural structures. The stochastic-statistical tech-
niques used predominantly in modeling static geologic systems cannot be used in
modeling dynamic systems, where time is the major variable (the geologic time is
measured in millions of years).
A possible approach to modeling dynamic geologic systems involves mathemat-
ical analysis techniques, i.e., differential equations, in combination with stochastic-
statistical methods of assigning the numeric values of variables. On the one hand,