Page 27 - Materials Chemistry, Second Edition

8 LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK

general, no mechanism exists to restrict biomass production for fuel to barren
lands only. Therefore, to develop sound advice on biofuel choices we have to
be comprehensive and cover 'all relevant mechanisms/
What might these relevant mechanisms be for biofuels? A first set of mecha-
nisms relates to the markets more or less directly involved. In the US case of
corn based ethanol (first generation) or stover-based ethanol (second genera-
tion), this involves the fodder and food markets for these products. Directly
connected are other products for these markets, especially wheat. Also directly
linked are changes in land use, more corn and wheat pressing out other sta-
ple products like soy beans, increasing the price of soy beans a well. These
three staple crops function on global markets, so even if the bioethanol is
US-produced the effects are really global, in principle affecting all crops glob-
ally. The overall agricultural effect will include somewhat higher prices, an
intensification of agriculture, with also higher nitrous oxides emission affect-
ing climate, and an increase in the volume of agricultural land use. Two studies
have investigated the impact on additionally induced conversion of tropical
rainforest into agricultural land; see Searchinger et ah (2008) and Fargione et ah
(2008). These two studies differ in set-up and outcomes and cannot directly be
connected to LCA-type studies. They show however that such global effects
of biofuel production cannot be neglected. One mechanism not covered by
these studies is a feedback in spatial policy as has taken place in Brazil and
Indonesia, with strengthened legislation and strengthened power in imple-
mentation. This administrative reaction to US, and similar EU, biofuel policy
will of course have longer term effects mainly. Some of these issues will be
treated in a bit more detail by Guinee in a later chapter, as the framework for
Life Cycle based Sustainability Analysis (LCSA).
So here we are, with old-fashioned types of LCA studies showing how
attractive biofuels may be, and a range of induced mechanisms often being
detrimental in an environmental sense, both on the shorter, longer and very
long term. What to do? The only answer seems to be: get on the job, make a
framework for analysis, start filling in the framework with conceptual models,
and produce first order quantifications on environmental outcomes. On the
way to specifying the mechanisms involved one will encounter major social
effects as well, with rising food prices in cities (with riots and possibly a major
effect on the uprisings in the Middle East) and with rising agricultural incomes
all over the world, also for the poorest farmers. How to come to an overall
evaluation of several divergent effects spread out in time will be a next prob-
lem to solve, involving all problems that have already been encountered in
Cost Benefit Analysis, but often have not been not solved adequately yet.

1.8 Why Environmental LCA?

The early development of cost-oriented LCA had clear goals: reducing cost
while improving performance. That driver remains, with cost analysis an
essential element in management accounting.