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192 Managing Global Warming

4.5.6 Nuclear fuel cycles and global sustainability

Sustainable energy supply relies on essentially inexhaustible resources of fissionable
fuel, notably uranium and thorium, and a benign or negligible impact on the Planet,
notably reduced CO 2 emissions. Future nuclear power reactor development should
focus on integrated and complementary reactor and fuel-cycle development. This is
one of the major goals of the Generation IV/GIF Program [1], and requires nuclear
fuel re-use. This is challenging, because of the implications for extensive recycling
and reprocessing, while mandating and maintaining the aims of nuclear
nonproliferation.
Nuclear energy is a global benefit, and its use has global consequences. Because of
limited indigenous fuel deposits, some nations/countries (e.g., France, Japan, China,
United States, India, Russia, and others) have proceeded to not only secure access to
uranium fuel supplies on the open marketplace, but also embraced recycling as the
major objective. In tandem with reactor deployment over the last 50years, they have
also pursued the development of so-called breeder reactors, in particular, variants of
the sodium-cooled plutonium- or uranium-fuelled reactor (the so-called LMFBR).
None of these reactors have been deployed commercially (exception is two LMFBRs:
BN-600 and BN-800 (SFRs) in Russia), but are in full prototype testing in China, Rus-
sia, and India. This “closing-the-fuel-cycle” activity would remove reliance on impo-
rted or premanufactured enriched fuels, which are supplied by countries that already
possess nuclear weapons and related fuel-processing capability (e.g., Russia, France,
United States, and United Kingdom). The countries with sufficient and/or naturally
abundant indigenous supplies (e.g., Canada, Australia, Africa, Kazakhstan, etc.) pro-
vide the “raw material,” presently natural uranium.
There is no present shortage of uranium fuels, and the currently known or economic
resources can fuel the existing and projected reactor numbers (<1000) with once-
through no-recycling for 20–30 years, or more. Even if existing cheaper resources
become depleted, or more “once-through-cycle” reactors are built, more exploration
will undoubtedly occur as for any ore or mineral, and prices will simply depend on
global demand and assured supply. Cheap natural gas will and must fill the global
energy needs for a while as a bridge to a more sustainable future, displacing coal,
where it makes economic and political sense, but there is no “free” solution. The con-
straining factors are primarily adequate nuclear expertise, national-political commit-
ment, and the high NPP capital investment. Today, there is a large increase in the
number of countries announcing plans for or expressing national interest in deploying
nuclear power reactors, many for the first time (e.g., Chile, Egypt, Jordan, Philippines,
Poland, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, UAE, etc.) and others proposing to add even more
(e.g.,Argentina,China,Finland, India,Korea,Romania, UnitedKingdom,and Russia).
Ultimately, in the future global energy context, there will continue to be inexorably
growing demand for economic progress, increasing interest in alternative energy
sources like renewables and hydrogen fuels, increasing desire for security and sustain-
ability of energy supply, and rising concerns over the impact of increasing environmen-
tal emissions. These will all drive the need for even more energy, and eventually for
more extensive deployment of nuclear energy worldwide as a “share” of the supply.