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application area for these robots based on both technical and marketing analysis, and to integrate as
"Healthcare Partner Robot System", by specific strategies of product development, contributing to the
healthcare of elderly people. This paper provides the basic analysis of the healthcare service market,
and proposes the expected main features and an example of business model of healthcare partner robot
according to the market demand.

2. MARKET ANALYSIS

2.1 Healthcare, Homecare market in Japan

The percentage of the population of Japanese society over 65 years old, will be 25% range in 2014
(about 17% in 2000), and reach to about 35% in 2050. The population of the working-age group, 15 —
64 years old, is expected as 62% in 2014 (about 68% in 2000), and about 54% in 2050 [2]. This shows
that 1 elderly person is currently supported by 4 working-age persons in 2000, but will be supported
only by 2.5 persons in 2014 , and by 1.4 persons in 2050.

When we focus on the actual number of elderly people, who really needs care from other persons in
meal/ toilet/ bath, more than 70 min per day, ranked as "Demand Level 3 or more (Heavy Users)", are
1,254 thousands in 2003, increasing 100 thousands per year from 2000 as shown in Table 1 [3]. If we
assume that it increase by same number for 10 years, it will increase by 1 Million people as heavy user.
As we have a look on "Demand Level 2 or less (Light Users)" people, who needs care partly for about
30 min up to 60 min per day, are 2,191 thousands in 2003, increasing 310 thousands per year, and will
increase by 3.1 Million people after 10 years.

TABLE 1
THE TREND OF CERTIFIED NUMBER OF NEED-CARE PERSONS
[thousand persons]
YEAR <2000 > <2001 > <2002 > <2003 >
SUM 218 2 2582 3029 3444
Need-car e Leve l 0 291 320 398 499
Leve l 1 light ) 551 709 891 1056
(
Leve l 2 (medium ) 394 490 571 636
Leve l 3 (heavy ) 317 358 394 426
Leve l 4(ver y he. ) 339 365 394 419
Leve l 5 (super ) 290 341 381 409

Consequently, there will be demand for caring power from 1 Million "Heavy Users", and 3.1 Million
"Light Users". The demand from "Heavy Users" are described as follow, such as
- Needs care partly/ fully in meal, toilet, bath/ clothes or for all movement
We see many prototypes of equipments for these applications, but see much less number of final
products in the market, for example in the product guidebook of International Home Care &
Rehabilitation Exhibitions 2003 [4]. The development cost to realize features to support these
applications, can be higher than the cost for "Light Users"-related applications. On the other hand,