Page 182 - Planning and Design of Airports

CHAPTER 5

Forecasting for

Airport Planning

Introduction
Plans for the development of the various components of the airport
system depend to a large extent on the activity levels which are fore-
cast for the future. Since the purpose of an airport is to process air-
craft, passengers, freight, and ground transport vehicles in an efficient
and safe manner, airport performance is judged on the basis of how
well the demand placed upon the facilities within the system is han-
dled. To adequately assess the causes of performance breakdowns in
existing airport systems and to plan facilities to meet future needs, it
is essential to predict the level and distribution of demand on the
various components of the airport system. Without a reliable knowl-
edge of the nature and expected variation in the loads placed upon a
component, it is impossible to realistically assess the physical and
operational requirements of such a component. For example, a fore-
cast to project the mix of aircraft and the types of aviation activity at
an airport site is necessary to identify the critical aircraft which dic-
tates the elements of geometric and structural design, the type and
extent of physical facilities, the navigational aid requirements, and
any special or unique facility needs at the airport [15, 17].
An understanding of future demand patterns allows the planner
to assess future airport performance in light of existing and improved
facilities, to evaluate the impact of various quality of service options
on the airlines, travelers, shippers, and community, to recommend
development programs consistent with the overall objectives and
policies of the airport operator, to estimate the costs associated with
these facility plans, and to project the sources and level of revenues to
support the capital improvement program.
It is essential in the planning and design of an airport to have
realistic estimates of the future demand to which airports are likely to
be subjected. This is a basic requirement in developing either an

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