Page 87 - Probability Demystified

76 CHAPTER 4 The Multiplication Rules

This strategy won’t work because if you play long enough, you will
eventually run out of money since if you get a series of tails, you must
increase your bet substantially each time. So if you lose five times in a row,
you have lost $1 þ $2 þ $4 þ $8 þ $16 or $31, and your next bet has to be $32.
So you are betting $63 to win $1. Runs do occur and when they do, hope that
they are in your favor.
Now let’s look at some unusual so-called ‘‘runs.’’
In 1950, a person won 28 straight times playing the game of craps (dice) at
the Desert Inn in Las Vegas. He lost on the twenty-ninth roll. He did not win
big though because after each win he stuffed some bills in his pocket. The
event took about one hour and twenty minutes.
In 1959 in a casino in Puerto Rico at a roulette game, the number 10
occurred six times in succession. There are 38 numbers on a roulette wheel.
At a casino in New York in 1943 the color red occurred in a roulette game
32 times in a row, and at a casino in Monte Carlo an even number occurred
in a roulette game 28 times in a row.
These incidents have been reported in two books, one entitled Scarne’s
Complete Guide to Gambling and the other entitled Lady Luck by Warren
Weaver.
So what can be concluded? First, rare events (events with a small
probability of occurring) can and do occur. Second, the more people who
play a game, the more likely someone will win. Finally, the law of averages
applies when there is a large number of independent outcomes in which the
probability of each outcome occurring does not change.