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CHAPTER 1 THE PRODUCT 5

found changes in computing architectures, vast increases in memory and storage
capacity, and a wide variety of exotic input and output options have all precipitated
more sophisticated and complex computer-based systems. Sophistication and com-
plexity can produce dazzling results when a system succeeds, but they can also pose
huge problems for those who must build complex systems.
Popular books published during the 1970s and 1980s provide useful historical
insight into the changing perception of computers and software and their impact on
“For I dipped into the our culture. Osborne [OSB79] characterized a "new industrial revolution." Toffler
future, far as the [TOF80] called the advent of microelectronics part of "the third wave of change" in
human eye could human history, and Naisbitt [NAI82] predicted a transformation from an industrial
see, Saw the vision
of the world, and all society to an "information society." Feigenbaum and McCorduck [FEI83] suggested
the wonder that that information and knowledge (controlled by computers) would be the focal point
would be.” for power in the twenty-first century, and Stoll [STO89] argued that the "electronic
Tennyson community" created by networks and software was the key to knowledge interchange
throughout the world.
As the 1990s began, Toffler [TOF90] described a "power shift" in which old power
structures (governmental, educational, industrial, economic, and military) disinte-
grate as computers and software lead to a "democratization of knowledge." Yourdon
“Computers make it [YOU92] worried that U.S. companies might loose their competitive edge in software-
easy to do a lot of related businesses and predicted “the decline and fall of the American programmer.”
things, but most of
the things that they Hammer and Champy [HAM93] argued that information technologies were to play a
make it easier to do pivotal role in the “reengineering of the corporation.” During the mid-1990s, the per-
don't need to be vasiveness of computers and software spawned a rash of books by “neo-Luddites”
done.” (e.g., Resisting the Virtual Life, edited by James Brook and Iain Boal and The Future
Andy Rooney
Does Not Compute by Stephen Talbot). These authors demonized the computer, empha-
sizing legitimate concerns but ignoring the profound benefits that have already been
realized. [LEV95]
During the later 1990s, Yourdon [YOU96] re-evaluated the prospects for the
software professional and suggested the “the rise and resurrection” of the Ameri-
can programmer. As the Internet grew in importance, his change of heart proved
to be correct. As the twentieth century closed, the focus shifted once more, this
time to the impact of the Y2K “time bomb” (e.g., [YOU98b], [DEJ98], [KAR99]).
Although the predictions of the Y2K doomsayers were incorrect, their popular
writings drove home the pervasiveness of software in our lives. Today, “ubiquitous
computing” [NOR98] has spawned a generation of information appliances that
have broadband connectivity to the Web to provide “a blanket of connectedness
over our homes, offices and motorways” [LEV99]. Software’s role continues to
expand.
The lone programmer of an earlier era has been replaced by a team of software
specialists, each focusing on one part of the technology required to deliver a com-
plex application. And yet, the same questions asked of the lone programmer are being
asked when modern computer-based systems are built: