Page 22 - Statistics and Data Analysis in Geology

Introduction

may occur intermixed in the same problem. An example occurs in trend-surface
analysis where an independent variable may be measured on a ratio scale while the
geographic coordinates are on an interval scale, because the coordinate grid has an
arbitrary origin.

A False Feeling of Security

Perhaps ths chapter should be concluded with a precautionary note. If you pursue
the following topics, you wdl become involved with mathematical methods that
have a certain aura of exactitude, that express relationships with apparent pre-
cision, and that are implemented on devices that have a popular reputation for
infallibility. Computers can be used very effectively as devices of intimidation. The
presentation of masses of numbers, all expressed to eight decimal places, over-
whelms the minds of many people and numbs their natural skepticism. A geologic
report couched in mathematical jargon and filled with computer output usually will
bluff all but a few critics, and those who understand and comment often do so in
equally obtuse terms. Hence, both the report and criticism pass over the heads
of most of the intended audience. The greatest danger, however, is to researchers
themselves. If they fall sway to their own computers, they may cease to critically
examine their data and the interpretative methods. Hypnotized by numbers, he
or she may be led to the most ludicrous conclusions, totally blind to any reality
beyond the computer screen. Keep in mind the little phrase posted on the wall of
every computation center: “GIGO-Garbage In, Garbage Out.”
The first chapter in the first edition of this book began and ended with quota-
tions; these were repeated in the second edition. I have no reason to remove them
now, as they are as relevant today as they were then. An anonymous critic left the
following rhyme on my desk almost 30 years ago. It remains posted on my wall to
ths day.

What could be cuter
Than to feed a computer
With wrong information
But naive expectation
To obtain with precision
A Napoleonic decision?
- Ma~jor Alexander P. dc Scvccsky

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