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THE CNN EFFECT IN ACTION
government actions or unexpected events from the zone of conflict.
As media and governments often act within hours of each other, it is
not always possible to demonstrate spikes in one domain followed by
the other. Such activity often occurs almost simultaneously, especially if
measured on a weekly basis as done in this study. If cases do emerge,
however, that show a clear spike in one domain followed by the other,
and if both media coverage and government documents refer to the
same events, then this can certainly provide additional evidence that can
either strengthen a case for a CNN effect (if media leads) or diminish it
(if the government leads). Table 6.2 reviews the six joint media-gov-
ernment spikes and answers three key questions:
1. What was the main reference for the media’s coverage?
2. Was this reference unexpected and driven by events or was it
institutionally initiated?
3. Was there a discernable media or government spike first or did
the spikes occur simultaneously?
Results show that two of the three media incidents outlined in
chapter 5—the massacres at Drenica and Gornje Obrinje—were clearly
media led. The Racak massacre, which was the third potential
Table 6.2 Review of Major Spikes in both Media Coverage and
Government Actions over Kosovo: January 1, 1998–March 23, 1999
Spike Period Main Reference Unexpected or Media-Led, Gov.-Led,
Institutional or Simultaneous
First 2 weeks of Drenica Unexpected Media-led
March 1998 Massacre/Attempted
Solutions
Mid-June 1998 Operation Institutional Government-led
Determined
Falcon
First 2 weeks of Gornje Obrinje Unexpected Media-led
October 1998 Massacre/Attempted
Solutions
Last 2 weeks of Racak Massacre/ Unexpected Simultaneous
January 1999 Proposed Solutions
Last 2 weeks of Rambouillet Institutional Simultaneous
February 1999
Week of Final Diplomacy Institutional Simultaneous
March 14, 1999 before War