Page 74 - The CNN Effect in Action - How the News Media Pushed the West toward War ini Kosovo

1403975191ts04.qxd 19-2-07 05:07 PM Page 49
49
THE CNN EFFECT AND WAR
media, politicians, and the public believe to be the public’s opinion,
11
which can differ from polling results.
Indeed, recent research has
shown that perceived public opinion is more important to politicians
12
than actual polling results.
Despite these limitations, it is still difficult in practice to visualize
Western democratic states beginning and sustaining a war in which
the majority of their people do not share their government’s convic-
13
tion to fight, especially in cases of humanitarian war.
As Clausewitz
pointed out, “The passions that are to be kindled in war must already
14
be inherent in the people.”
The Rise of Public Opinion
The growing importance of public opinion in war is invariably linked
to growth in liberal democratic values and governance. Jeremy
Bentham and James Mill advocated what E.H. Carr termed “the doc-
trine of salvation by public opinion,” believing that public opinion, if
allowed to flourish, could always be counted on as a rational force for
good. Rousseau and Kant argued that wars could be prevented if deci-
15
sions on their engagement were left to the people instead of princes.
The Napoleonic Wars that followed the French Revolution marked an
important break from the age of absolutism, when limited wars
fought by dispassionate professionals were common throughout
Europe. The French Revolution was a pivotal event for the public in
the affairs of state and military, as it increased popular participation in
government through the growth of democracy and bureaucracy. It
also led to more participation in foreign policy and military issues, as
Napoleon introduced national conscription and assembled the first
mass-standing armies in the world. This meant that the management
of and compliance with public concerns and opinion had to be taken
16
into greater account for the conduct and success of war. World War I,
along with its aftermath, was another important watershed for public
opinion, as many thinkers blamed the secret diplomacy of leaders and
lack of public consultation as root causes of the war. 17 Much of this
belief, as mentioned before, was based on perceived public opinion
and not on polls. It was only in the 1930s that the science of public
opinion polling, as understood today, emerged. 18
In the post–cold war era, public opinion—whether polled or
perceived—continues to ascend in relevance as a factor in foreign
policy decision–making for a number of reasons. First, notwithstand-
ing the earlier critiques, Westerners are more educated than in previ-
ous generations—with high literacy rates and levels of university