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134    Cha pte r  T e n



                Component of    Background           Reported             Unreported
                Infrastructure  (undetectable) Losses  Breaks             Breaks
                Mains           Length               Number/year          Number/year
                                Pressure             Pressure             Pressure
                                Min loss rate/km*    Average flow rate*   Average flow rate*
                                                     Average duration     Average duration
                Service         Leakage through      Reported overflows:  Unreported overflows:
                Reservoirs      Structure            Flow rates, duration  Flow rates, duration
                Service         Number               Number/year          Number/year
                connections,    Pressure             Pressure             Pressure
                main to edge of   Min loss rate/conn*  Average flow rate*  Average flow rate*
                street
                                                     Average duration     Average duration
                Service         Length               Number/year          Number/year
                Connections     Pressure             Pressure             Pressure
                after edge of   Min loss rate/km*    Average flow rate*   Average flow rate*
                street
                                                     Average duration     Average duration

               * At some standard pressure.
               Source: Water Loss Control Manual, 1st ed.

               TABLE 10.6  Parameters Required for Calculation of Components of Annual Real Losses


                       The BABE annual component analysis model was first calibrated and successfully
                    tested using British data in 1993. It was rapidly extended to cover economic analysis to
                    assess the economic frequency of active leakage control interventions, and since then
                    has been used in many countries.
                       The BABE annual model can be considered as a statistical model, in that it does not
                    seek to identify every individual leakage event and calculate an annual loss volume;
                    rather, it groups together similar events, and does simplified calculations. The larger
                    the number of events, the better the accuracy of the calculated values, so BABE annual
                    models work more reliably with large systems. The BABE model used for calculation of
                    unavoidable annual real losses (UARL) is limited to systems with more than 3000 ser-
                    vice connections (based on detailed sensitivity analysis this value was revised down
                    from 5000 connections in 2005).
                       The powerful combination of BABE and FAVAD concepts meant that, in the late
                    1990s, a range of simple spreadsheet models could be developed to approach a number
                    of leakage management problems for individual systems, on a rational and systematic
                    basis. Figure 10.1 shows the range of problems which has been successfully modeled.
                       BABE modeling or component analysis can also be undertaken at district or zone
                    level breaking down night flows into the key consumption and real loss components.


               10.5  Using BABE Modeling Concepts to Prioritize Activities
                    It is not recommended that component analysis is undertaken on its own to derive a
                    volume of annual real losses because there is likely to be a significant level of uncertainty
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