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Paramount Consulting’s Proposal Opportunity at the ABC Company     235


                            Industry forecasts indicate that the overall market will grow modestly over the next
                          several years and that relatively little change in product configuration is expected. The
                          forecasts also show that ABC is expected to retain its share of the market, which is
                          highly competitive. Just four major producers accounted for 86 percent of total ship-
                          ments the previous year. Because of the favorable characteristics of its product line
                          and its high service levels, ABC has consistently increased its market share and par-
                          ticipated fully in a modestly growing overall market driven by replacement demand,
                          residential and commercial construction, and general economic conditions.
                            One of the concerns of the industry is the increasing cost of distributing its
                          products. Apparently, the configuration of the product and its weight yields a bulk/
                          weight ratio that makes distribution costs a major component of total operating
                          costs. Furthermore, geographic demand for the product is following continuing
                          demographic shifts to the U.S. South, Southeast, and Southwest. Industry reports
                          also show that most of ABC’s production takes place in one midwestern city but
                          that the manufacture of some special-purpose units in the product line occurs in
                          two smaller satellite facilities in relatively small midwestern cities.
                            With this basic understanding, Gilmore looks forward to the meeting to learn
                          more about ABC’s situation. He has already decided that he will take along one of
                          his associates: you.



                                            February 9: Meeting with Gupta,

                                             Collins, Metzger, and Morrison
                          At the meeting, Gupta introduces the attendees identified in the phone
                          conversation. He explains that the four of them will serve as ABC’s consultant-
                          selection committee along with the division president, who is away that day at
                          Consolidated’s headquarters in New York.
                            Gupta introduces Marcia Collins, VP of Marketing, who sets the stage for the
                          meeting. Collins joined ABC two years earlier after spending four years as director of
                          marketing for a large national grocery products company. Prior to that, she received
                          an undergraduate degree from Northwestern and an M.B.A. from its Kellogg School.
                          Collins’s basic discussion document is a chart that shows two market forecasts for
                          ABC, one labeled “optimistic” and the other “conservative.” (See Figure A.1.)
                            Obvious from the chart is that ABC’s forecasts assume its ability to continue to
                          increase market share. Most revealing is a horizontal line on the forecast graph that
                          represents the capacity of the existing production facility. It shows that in less than
                          three years, existing capacity is exceeded even in the conservative forecast—be-
                          yond that point, the shortfall in production capacity becomes progressively larger.
                            Gupta next introduces Frank Metzger, Plant Manager, explaining that he has
                          been with ABC his entire career. Metzger worked as an hourly employee in the
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