Page 151 - Materials Chemistry, Second Edition

136 A. Bjørn et al.

technology (e.g. wind turbines), but merely to the changes in the speed of
decommissioning (e.g. coal or gas power plants).
Increase or decrease in demand

The electricity generation example above relates to the situation where the
assessed decision leads to an increase in demand, and the general trend in the
market is either on the increase or decrease. However, the assessed decision may
also lead to a decrease in demand. If the assessed decision leads to a large decrease
in demand in a market with an increasing market trend, the implementation of new
technologies will be postponed, implying that existing least cost effective tech-
nologies will continue to be used for a longer time.
As showed in the discussions above, there are three aspects that need to be
considered, and since each of them has two possible outcomes, there is a total of
eight possible combinations. Not all combinations were discussed above, but they
follow the same logic. Table 9.1 summarises the discussions above and gives an
outline of how to perform the identification of which technology is affected by a
change in demand for all eight combinations.

Table 9.1 Identification of the technology which will be affected by a change in demand (i.e. the
marginal technology)
Long-term marginal Short-term marginal
Decision leads Increasing market trend: Increasing market trend:
to increase in Implementation of new production Less cost-efficient technology will be
demand technology is promoted—increase in used to supply increase in demand—
demand is supplied by the production increase in demand is supplied by
technology to be implemented in the least cost effective technology
context available on the market
Decision leads Decreasing market trend: Decreasing market trend:
to increase in Decommissioning of least Less cost-efficient technology will be
demand competitive technology is delayed. used to supply increase in demand.
Increase in demand is supplied by Increase in demand is supplied by
least cost effective technology least cost effective technology
available on the market available on the market
Decision leads Increasing market trend: Increasing market trend:
to decrease in Implementation of new production The least cost-efficient technology is
demand technology is delayed. Decrease in no longer needed because of reduced
demand saves the supply from demand. Decrease in demand saves
production technology to be the supply from least cost effective
implemented in the context technology available on the market
Decision leads Decreasing market trend: Decreasing market trend:
to decrease in Decommissioning of least The least cost-efficient technology is
demand competitive technology is promoted no longer needed because of reduced
—decrease in demand saves the demand—decrease in demand saves
supply from least cost effective the supply from least cost effective
technology available on the market technology available on the market
After identifying the production technology affected by the change in demand, go to Step 1 again
to address other changes created by the assessed decision, if all changes are not already
handled.