Page 37 - A Comprehensive Guide to Solar Energy Systems

Chapter 2 • Solar Power Development in China 31

Table 2.7 China’s Target for Power Development in 2020
2015 2020
Capacity/(GW) Electricity/(TW Capacity/(GW) Electricity/(TW Coal equivalent/
h) h) (Mt)
Total power 1530 5550 2000 6800–7200
Nonhydrorenew- 172.18 276 335 655 193.13
able
Solar power 43.19 39.6 110 144.5 42.63
Concentrated PV 37.12 39.2 60 124.5 36.73
Distributed PV 6.06 45
Photothermal 0.014 0.4 5 20 5.90
Source: Author’s compilation, based on NEA. Thirteenth five-year plan for solar energy development (no. 354). NEA; 2016; NDRC.
Thirteenth five-year plan for renewable energy development (no. 2619). NDRC; 2016; NDRC and NEA. Thirteenth five-year plan for
energy development (no. 2744). NDRC, National Energy Administration (NEA); 2016; NEA. PV statistics 2015. NEA. Available at: http://
www.nea.gov.cn/2016-02/05/c_135076636.htm; 2016 [11,16–18].

77.42 GW by the end of 2016, an increment of 34.54 GW within the year. As NEA once pub-
licly stated [19], the target for PV installations was derived according to China’s structural
objective with regard to primary energy (15% for nonfossil energy), and it should therefore
be treated as the minimum rather than the binding value.
Despite the fact that the market is concentrated in the traditional grid connected sys-
tem, the 13th Five-year Plan for Solar Energy Development proposes that the priority of
solar PV in the future would be “application diversifying,” by promoting applications of
distributed PV (to establish 100 rooftop PV demonstration areas by the year 2020), and
“PV+” (PV integration with other industries) such as PV for agricultural greenhouses, ad-
hoc PV installations for fisheries, and hydro-PV hybrid plants.
With regard to price, NEA [11] has set a target for the price of PV electricity to decrease
by more than 50%, compared with the 2015 level; moreover, on-grid electricity prices of
PV systems should be roughly equivalent to the average retail price, and furthermore the
generation cost of solar thermal power should decline to less than rMB yuan 0.8 (kW h) .
−1

2.4.2 Development Orientation
Dominance of crystalline silicon cell in the domestic PV market of China will be hard to
change in the short term. Although poly-Si has captured over 80% of the domestic mar-
ket, the demand for mono-Si is increasing. Price difference between mono-Si and poly-Si
wafers is narrowing, due to improvement in monocrystalline-Si wafer quality and process-
ing technology of PErC PVs. The generation cost of mono-Si PV power systems might be
reduced so as to be competitive with poly-Si PVs in the near future, by taking advantage of
the high conversion efficiency of mono-Si cell.
In terms of technology orientation, as suggested by NEA [11], the supportive policy
intends to focus on PErC, n-mono, and other types of high-efficient silicon cells, indus-
trialization of thin film cell, and r&D activities on key PV equipment. A large number
of demonstration projects will be implemented to investigate the feasibility of new PV