Page 50 - An Introduction to Political Communication Second Edition

THE EFFECTS OF POLITICAL COMMUNICATION

exit polls (taken after citizens have voted) conducted on the east
coast of the country until polling booths on the west coast have
closed (three hours later), or at least until the majority of west coasters
have voted. In the view of some analysts, the results of these polls
may affect those who have not yet voted. If, for example, exit polls
conducted in New York indicate a landslide for one candidate, west
coast supporters of the other candidate may decide not to bother
voting, thus distorting the final result. One explanation for the
unexpected Conservative victory in the British general election of
1992 is that opinion polls indicating a substantial Labour Party lead
lulled both party members and supporters into what turned out to
be a false sense of security, enabling the Conservatives to make
decisive progress in the final few days of the campaign. 4
It has also been argued that opinion polls may generate a
demonstration effect, ‘cueing’ undecided voters on which party the
majority is supporting, and thus becoming self-fulfilling prophecies.
Robert Worcester cites evidence that about 3 per cent of British voters
in general elections are influenced by opinion polls, and that in by-
elections the impact is even greater. He suggests that at the
Bermondsey by-election of 1983, when a controversial Labour Party
candidate was contesting a safe Labour seat, opinion polls indicating
a slight lead for the Liberal candidate generated an eventual Liberal
landslide. In this case as in others, the poll alerted voters as to who
they should vote for if they did not want the Labour candidate to
win (Worcester, 1991, p.205).
Arguments of this type are highly speculative and—given the
aforementioned difficulty of establishing cause and effect
relationships—practically impossible to prove. It is beyond doubt,
however, that public opinion polls become a part of the political
environment they are designed to monitor. Just as a thermometer
alters the temperature of the air around it, so a public opinion poll
becomes part of the data upon which individuals calculate their future
political moves.

Voting behaviour
A second way in which the effects of political communication can be
measured is to observe patterns in actual voting behaviour. Such
evidence is clearly more tangible than opinion poll data, and
frequently contradicts the former (as in the 1992 general election,
when most opinion polls failed to predict a Conservative victory). It
is no less difficult to interpret, however. The relationship between a

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