Page 172 - Biofuels for a More Sustainable Future

156 Biofuels for a More Sustainable Future

of considering the whole life cycle is clear when considering scenarios
100%-1 and 100%-2: despite both being zero-carbon at the point of gen-
eration by 2070, 100%-1 has an overall carbon footprint twice as high as
100%-2. This is due to the latter’s greater reliance on wind and
nuclear power.
Scenario 100%-2 also has the lowest acidification potential from the
2030s onwards, where most other scenarios achieve only modest reductions
due to their use of coal CCS and biomass. Fig. 5.12 also shows that terrestrial
ecotoxicity is likely to worsen in future. This is mostly due to the increased
metal extraction and processing per unit of electricity generated, which
results from greater reliance on renewables. It is also due to the spreading
of ash from miscanthus combustion, as discussed in the previous section.
Consequently, policy and regulatory oversight of both these industries will
become increasingly important.
Future employment in the electricity sector looks set to increase regard-
less of the scenario chosen, as shown in Fig. 5.13. Across the whole life cycle,
100%-1 is estimated to employ 109,300 people by 2070, compared to
46,100 in 2009. This is mostly due to the labor intensive life cycles of wind
and solar power. In contrast, human toxicity shows only modest changes
throughout the time period.

Fig. 5.12 Selected environmental indicators for all subscenarios to 2070, impacts
expressed per year (for nomenclature refer to Fig. 5.7).

Fig. 5.13 Selected social indicators for all subscenarios to 2070, impacts expressed per
year (for nomenclature refer to Fig. 5.8).