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14 Contents

Part IV Prescriptive analytics 421
Chapter 9 Model-Based Decision Making: optimization and
Multi-Criteria systems 422
9.1 Opening Vignette: Midwest ISO Saves Billions by Better
Planning of Power Plant Operations and Capacity
Planning 423
9.2 Decision Support Systems Modeling 424
▶ ApplicAtion cAse 9.1 Optimal Transport for ExxonMobil
Downstream Through a DSS 425
Current Modeling Issues 426
▶ ApplicAtion cAse 9.2 Forecasting/Predictive Analytics Proves to Be
a Good Gamble for Harrah’s Cherokee Casino and Hotel 427
9.3 Structure of Mathematical Models for Decision Support 429
The Components of Decision Support Mathematical Models 429
The Structure of Mathematical Models 431
9.4 Certainty, Uncertainty, and Risk 431
Decision Making Under Certainty 432
Decision Making Under Uncertainty 432
Decision Making Under Risk (Risk Analysis) 432
▶ ApplicAtion cAse 9.3 American Airlines Uses
Should-Cost Modeling to Assess the Uncertainty of Bids
for Shipment Routes 433
9.5 Decision Modeling with Spreadsheets 434
▶ ApplicAtion cAse 9.4 Showcase Scheduling at Fred Astaire East
Side Dance Studio 434
9.6 Mathematical Programming Optimization 437
▶ ApplicAtion cAse 9.5 Spreadsheet Model Helps Assign Medical
Residents 437
Mathematical Programming 438
Linear Programming 438
Modeling in LP: An Example 439
Implementation 444
9.7 Multiple Goals, Sensitivity Analysis, What-If Analysis,
and Goal Seeking 446
Multiple Goals 446
Sensitivity Analysis 447
What-If Analysis 448
Goal Seeking 448
9.8 Decision Analysis with Decision Tables and Decision
Trees 450
Decision Tables 450
Decision Trees 452
9.9 Multi-Criteria Decision Making With Pairwise
Comparisons 453
The Analytic Hierarchy Process 453

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