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16 Contents

10.6 System Dynamics Modeling 488
10.7 Agent-Based Modeling 491
▶ ApplicAtion cAse 10.5 Agent-Based Simulation Helps Analyze
Spread of a Pandemic Outbreak 493
Chapter Highlights 494 • Key Terms 494
Questions for Discussion 495 • Exercises 495
▶ end-of-chApter ApplicAtion cAse HP Applies Management
Science Modeling to Optimize Its Supply Chain and Wins a Major
Award 495
References 497

Chapter 11 Automated Decision systems and Expert systems 499
11.1 Opening Vignette: InterContinental Hotel Group Uses
Decision Rules for Optimal Hotel Room Rates 500
11.2 Automated Decision Systems 501
▶ ApplicAtion cAse 11.1 Giant Food Stores Prices the Entire
Store 502
11.3 The Artificial Intelligence Field 505
11.4 Basic Concepts of Expert Systems 507
Experts 507
Expertise 508
Features of ES 508
▶ ApplicAtion cAse 11.2 Expert System Helps in Identifying Sport
Talents 510
11.5 Applications of Expert Systems 510
▶ ApplicAtion cAse 11.3 Expert System Aids in Identification of
Chemical, Biological, and Radiological Agents 511
Classical Applications of ES 511
Newer Applications of ES 512
Areas for ES Applications 513
11.6 Structure of Expert Systems 514
Knowledge Acquisition Subsystem 514
Knowledge Base 515
Inference Engine 515
User Interface 515
Blackboard (Workplace) 515
Explanation Subsystem (Justifier) 516
Knowledge-Refining System 516
▶ ApplicAtion cAse 11.4 Diagnosing Heart Diseases by Signal
Processing 516
11.7 Knowledge Engineering 517
Knowledge Acquisition 518
Knowledge Verification and Validation 520
Knowledge Representation 520
Inferencing 521
Explanation and Justification 526

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