Page 192 -

Future Scenarios

SCENARIOS The scenario is another thinking tool that helps us refl ect scenarios can be a powerful exercise. The scenarios tion is driven in part by pharmacogenomics, in part by

on business models of the future. Scenarios kick-start help trigger out-of-the-box thinking, which is not always advances in diagnostics, and in part by renewed cost-
186186 our creativity by providing concrete future contexts for easy when trying to develop innovative business models. consciousness amid growing awareness that prevention
which we can invent appropriate business models. This Here’s an overview of how such an exercise might be is less expensive than hospitalization and treatment.
DESIGN is usually easier and more productive than free brain- conducted. These two drivers suggest trends that may or may not
storming about possible future business models. It does
materialize and thus provide four scenarios illustrated
require, however, developing several scenarios, which First, we must devise a set of scenarios that paint in the fi gure opposite. These are:
can be costly depending on their depth and realism. pictures of the future of the pharmaceutical industry. › business as usual: Personal medicine fails to
This is best left to scenario planning specialists equipped materialize despite its technological feasibility (e.g.
One sector under strong pressure to devise innovative with the right tools and methodology. To illustrate, we for privacy reasons, etc.) and treatment remains
new business models is the pharmaceutical industry. developed four bare bones scenarios based on two crite- the core revenue generator.
There are a number of reasons for this. Major player ria that may shape the evolution of the pharma industry › my.medicine: Personal medicine materializes, but
research productivity has declined in recent years, and over the next decade. There are, of course, several other treatment remains the core revenue generator.
these companies face enormous challenges discovering drivers and many different scenarios that could be › the healthy patient: The shift toward preventive
and marketing new blockbuster drugs—traditionally the crafted based on deeper research into the industry. medicine continues, but personal medicine remains
core of their businesses. At the same time, patents on a fad despite technological feasibility.
many of their cash cow drugs are expiring. This means The two drivers we’ve selected are (1) the emergence of › reinventing pharma: Personal and preventive
revenues from those drugs are likely to be lost to generic personalized medicine and (2) the shift from treatment medicine comprise the new growth areas of the
drug manufacturers. This combination of empty product toward prevention. The former is based on advances in drug industry.
pipelines and evaporating revenue are just two head- pharmacogenomics, the science of identifying underlying
aches plaguing incumbent pharmaceutical makers. causes of diseases based on a person’s DNA structure.
Someday, this may result in completely personalized
In this turbulent context, combining business model treatment, using customized drugs based on a person’s
brainstorming with the development of a set of future genetic structure. The shift from treatment to preven-

!"#$%&'(%)*+(%,,---1:/ /012013---2488-67