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MIXED STATES AND THE PARTICLE FILTER                         131


                             4
                           (a)  p(x)
                             2
                             0
                             2
                           (b)  q(x)
                             1
                             0
                              0    0.2   0.4    0.6   0.8    1
                                             x

                           (c)
                           (d)


                           (e)
            Figure 4.21  Representation of a probability density. (a) A density p(x). (b) The
            proposal density q(x). (c) 40 samples of q(x). (d) Importance sampling of p(x) using
            the 40 samples from q(x). (e) Selected samples from (d) as an equally weighted
            sample representation of p(x)

            4.4.3  The condensation algorithm

            One of the simplest applications of importance sampling combined
            with resampling by selection is in the so-called condensation algorithm
            (‘conditional density optimization’). The algorithm follows the general
            scheme of Figure 4.2. The prediction density p(x(i)jZ(i   1)) is used as
            the proposal density q(x). So, at time i, we assume that a set x (k)  is
            available which is an unweighted representation of p(x(i)jZ(i   1)). We
            use importance sampling to find the posterior density p(x(i)jZ(i)). For
            that purpose we make the following substitutions in (4.72):

                          pðxÞ! pðxðiÞjZði   1ÞÞ
                        pðxjzÞ! pðxðiÞjzðiÞ; Zði   1ÞÞ ¼ pðxðiÞjZðiÞÞ
                          qðxÞ! pðxðiÞjZði   1ÞÞ
                        pðzjxÞ! pðzðiÞjxðiÞ; Zði   1ÞÞ ¼ pðzðiÞjxðiÞÞ

            The weights w (k)  that define the representation of pðxðiÞjzðiÞÞ is
                          norm
            obtained from:
                                    w ðkÞ  ¼ pðzðiÞjx Þ                ð4:77Þ
                                                 ðkÞ
            Next, resampling by selection provides an unweighted representation
            x (k)  . The last step is the prediction. Using x (k)  as a representation
             selected                                 selected
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