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Chapter 4 E-environment 241

Technological innovation and technology assessment

One of the great challenges of managing e-commerce is the need to be able to assess which
new technological innovations can be applied to give competitive advantage. I’m often asked
what is ‘the next big thing’ or to predict changes in e-commerce over the next 5 years. The
truth is no one can predict the future, there are lots of examples of companies that have mis-
understood the market for products.
‘This “telephone” has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of
communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.’
Western Union internal memo, 1876
‘Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?’
H. M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927
‘I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.’
Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

‘There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home’.
Ken Olson (President of Digital Equipment Corporation)
at the Convention of the World Future Society in Boston in 1977
I personally believe the best that organizations can do is to analyse the current situation and
respond rapidly where appropriate. This is encapsulated by the quote by the Canadian science-
fiction writer William Gibson, who said:

‘The future is here. It’s just not widely distributed yet.’
A slightly different, and more forward-looking, perspective came from Bruce Toganizzi, who
founded the Human Interface Team at Apple and developed the company’s first interface
guidelines (E-consultancy, 2007):
‘Successful technology-predicting is based on detecting discontinuities and predicting
the trends that will flow from them.’
He gives the example of the introduction of the Apple iPhone and the other devices based
on gestural interfaces that will follow.
In addition to technologies deployed on the web site, the suitability of new approaches

for attracting visitors to the site must be evaluated – for example, should registration at a
paid-for search engine, or new forms of banner adverts or e-mail marketing be used (Chap-
ter 9)? Decisions on strategy are covered in Chapter 5.
The manager may have read several articles in the trade and general press which have
highlighted the issue and then faces a difficult decision as to whether to:

ignore the use of the technique, perhaps because it is felt to be too expensive or untried,
or the manager simply doesn’t believe the benefits will outweigh the costs;
enthusiastically adopt the technique without a detailed evaluation since the hype alone
convinces the manager that the technique should be adopted;
evaluate the technique and then take a decision whether to adopt it according to the
evaluation.
Depending on the attitude of the manager, this behaviour can be summarized as:

1 Cautious, ‘wait-and-see’ approach.
2 Risk-taking, early-adopter approach.
3 Intermediate approach.